Time will tell.
My experience navigating the SPG program over many years:
The SPG no capacity control on standard hotel rooms and no black-out dates, is, in my opinion, a huge plus of the SPG program. HOWEVER, some Starwood hotel owners have gotten very smart about manipulating the SPG program. What they've done is they've tweaked their standard hotel rooms in such a way to reclassify them as upgraded rooms. Remember, the "no capacity control," "no blackout date" features of the SPG program is applicable (for standard room level awards) for standard rooms. So, the end run that the owners have played is this: they have dramatically reduced the number of standard rooms in their hotel. They sell those rooms out first. When then comes along an SPG member, looking to use points for a standard room redemption, all of a sudden, there are "no rooms available." On occasion, the SPG website will tell you, when you are searching for a SPG award redemption room, that you have to call SPG Reservations to check availability. If you are lucky, the Hotel Owner has put their "upgraded room" into the SPG award redemption pool, making it available for SPG points redemption, BUT, with additional SPG points over the standard room. More often that not, I have discovered in cases like the above, that there are no room available for SPG points redemption. One hotel that is an excellent example of this Hotel Owner/SPG program end-play is the Parsippany (NJ) Sheraton. They converted many standard rooms into upgraded rooms, and the upgraded rooms are not subject to the standard room reward redemption thresholds.
In my opinion, 15 years ago, many hotel and airline brand loyalty programs were a lot more attractive than they are today. No wonder Airbnb is an aspiring Cottage Industry, and a real threat to hotel companies and states who want to collect state taxes and surcharges on hotel room nights.
