Thank you for answering my questions. Now why would poly be resale in just a few short months?
DVC just sent out a
postcard stating VGF is 80% sold, which
based on current sales, it will sell out in 7 mos (end of May). Disney will have to start selling Poly by that time, but will likely start much sooner-DVC reps have reportedly been saying as early as Jan 1. Also,
Poly Studios will be ready for occupancy by January and Bungalows will be ready by March. Poly resales will probably be scarce since few people will pay full price then turn around and sell them, and demand will be high since you'll need to own Poly to book @ 11 mos.
I'll have to look at the chart and figure out how many points we really do need realistically.
Here is my consolidated WDW
points spreadsheet or
PDF, to compare points required across resorts, room types, seasons.
Here are the official point charts for each resort:
Aulani, Disney Vacation Club Villas, Ko Olina, Hawai'i
Bay Lake Tower at Disney's Contemporary Resort
Disney's Animal Kingdom Villas
Disney's Beach Club Villas
Disney's BoardWalk Villas
Disney's Hilton Head Island Resort
Disney's Old Key West Resort
Disney's Saratoga Springs Resort & Spa
Disney's Vero Beach Resort
The Villas at Disney's Grand Californian Hotel & Spa
The Villas at Disney's Grand Floridian Resort & Spa
The Villas at Disney's Wilderness Lodge
The easiest way to compare DVC contracts w/ various lengths, fees, banked/borrowed points is to divide Total Cost (including closing) by Total Points (annual points X remaining years on contract + current year points - points borrowed from next year + points banked into next year) to get the Cost per (individual) Point on the contract (typically $2-3). This is the actual cost (in present value) you are paying for each point. Then add the current MF/point to get the Total Cost Per Point (TCPP)-the total
actual cost you'll pay (in current year) for each individual point you use.
The avg, low, & high TCPP per resort for
all resale listings in Oct were:
Code:
Resort Avg TCPP Low TCPP High TCPP
AUL(sub) $7.16 $6.97 $7.36
SSR $7.24 $6.87 $8.26
BLT $7.51 $7.11 $8.56
OKW(ext) $7.81 $7.75 $7.85
VGC $8.28 $7.89 $8.65
AKV $8.42 $8.12 $9.41
VGF $8.53 $8.49 $8.57
OKW $8.66 $8.24 $9.27
AUL $8.85 $8.36 $9.49
HHI $9.08 $8.78 $9.47
VWL $9.24 $8.77 $10.01
BWV $9.28 $8.88 $9.68
BCV $9.71 $9.40 $10.28
VB $10.24 $9.81 $10.78
Rental $14.00
Listing Source: disneydvcresale.com
AS you can see, AUL (subsidized), SSR, BLT, & OKW (extended) are currently the best value @ $7-$8 TCPP. That said, if you look at the
lowest TCPP listing per resort, VGC comes under $8, & AKV, VGF, OKW, & AUL are $8-$8.50 TCPP, so
can be good values
depending on the contract. TCPP compares to a reference cost of $14-the cost to rent the same points. Obviously at $10 Total Cost Per Point, the savings over renting is less than at $7, thus $7 is a better value, financially.
That said, TCPP isn't the only factor. You may want to own at a particular resort to book @ 11 mos for a variety of reasons, incl. booking Concierge Level @ AKV, studios @ MK/Epcot resorts, or Standard views @ AUL, in which case owning those resorts can be a must. Typically all other rooms are available exactly at 7 mos, but if you aren't good at remembering the exact date & time you need to book, it may be better to own the resort you stay at most to have flexibility in when you book 7-11 mos out.
Keep in mind, closing costs, current year points, & future year banked/borrowed points can make a difference when comparing two contracts, even with the same advertised CPP. If you can get the buyer to pay closing (worth trying) a higher CPP contract can actually be cheaper. Likewise, loaded contracts are lower TCPP than stripped-however don't overlook lower advertised CPP contracts with stripped points which often have
lower TCPP, & you'll have more negotiating power to get buyer to pay closing, etc.
TCPP is great for comparing total cost per point across contracts, but at the end of the day advertised CPP still matters since it dictates what you can
afford-AUL (sub) may be the best value, but they are also some of the mot expensive contracts on a flat CPP basis, since they are longer contracts, thus you are paying for more points over the life of the contract therefore they cost more up front-significantly more than say SSR, which is both low TCPP & low advertised CPP, thus a popular resale. Just don't fall in the trap of
only looking at advertised CPP since you'll end up with VB @ $39 CPP, which has a total cost per point of $10+, barely any savings over renting points for $14.
Another important consideration is
Historical MF Trends-e.g. which resorts have historically had below average MFs & below average MF % increases. The reason this matters, is because TCPP is based on current year value (total cost of points consumed this year). If MFs go up faster for one resort than another, the TCPP could very well change in the future-so it's important to buy a resort with both
low and
stable % increases (e.g. SSR or AUL).
Another consideration may be rental value since MK & Epcot resorts, VGC, & AUL all pay a $2/pt premium ($13 to seller) if rented @ 11 mos through David's Vacation Club or DVC Rental Store-which more than offsets the higher TCPP in years that you rent the points--which if you are also getting more benefit out of those resorts when you do use them (e.g. to book the room you want @ 11 mos) then you're getting more benefit whether you use them or rent them, which may help justify a AUL purchase, for example.
Good luck!
