• The TUGBBS forums are completely free and open to the public and exist as the absolute best place for owners to get help and advice about their timeshares for more than 30 years!

    Join Tens of Thousands of other Owners just like you here to get any and all Timeshare questions answered 24 hours a day!
  • TUG started 30 years ago in October 1993 as a group of regular Timeshare owners just like you!

    Read about our 30th anniversary: Happy 30th Birthday TUG!
  • TUG has a YouTube Channel to produce weekly short informative videos on popular Timeshare topics!

    Free memberships for every 50 subscribers!

    Visit TUG on Youtube!
  • TUG has now saved timeshare owners more than $21,000,000 dollars just by finding us in time to rescind a new Timeshare purchase! A truly incredible milestone!

    Read more here: TUG saves owners more than $21 Million dollars
  • Sign up to get the TUG Newsletter for free!

    60,000+ subscribing owners! A weekly recap of the best Timeshare resort reviews and the most popular topics discussed by owners!
  • Our official "end my sales presentation early" T-shirts are available again! Also come with the option for a free membership extension with purchase to offset the cost!

    All T-shirt options here!
  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

Any opinions on when the resale market will pick up?

PClapham

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
978
Reaction score
12
Points
378
Location
Cleveland
Resorts Owned
WorldMark
Foxrun
Hi-I'm wondering when, or maybe if, the resale market will get re-established-any reasoned opinions? I keep thinking there is value going begging, or else there was a mammoth bubble.
Anita
 

Bill4728

Moderator
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
11,038
Reaction score
598
Points
899
Location
Lake Tapps, WA
A few TS developers are using ROFR to stabilize the market (HGVC & CI) but for everyone else the prices are still in free-fall.
 

DeniseM

Moderator
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
57,668
Reaction score
9,087
Points
1,849
Resorts Owned
WKORV, WKV, 2-SDO, 4-Kauai Beach Villas, Island Park Village (Yellowstone), Hyatt High Sierra, Dolphin's Cove (Anaheim)
No idea, but if you can tell me when the economy is going to recover, the TS market will start to recover right after that! ;)
 

timeos2

Tug Review Crew: Rookie
TUG Lifetime Member
Joined
Apr 11, 2005
Messages
11,183
Reaction score
5
Points
36
Location
Rochester, NY
The only thing it stabilizes is the sellers inability to sell!

A few TS developers are using ROFR to stabilize the market (HGVC & CI) but for everyone else the prices are still in free-fall.

I thought this fallacy was put to bed. IF anyone is still doing ROFR (and the number is near zero) it is not "stabilizing the market" but hiding the low cost resales under a corporate veil. The seller still got next to nothing, but rather than a real buyer having the sale the company exercising ROFR gets it. Since the market is already saturated that means anyone with an active ROFR is unlikely to get a sale. Since the market is so bad even the ROFR buyers are tending to drop out. So decide if you want to be stuck with an unsellable timeshare or take virtually nothing for it. ROFR only serves to discourage any buyers when you need to sell. It does nothing to get you a sale or a penny more.
 

Talent312

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2007
Messages
17,461
Reaction score
7,277
Points
948
Resorts Owned
HGVC & GTS

DeniseM

Moderator
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
57,668
Reaction score
9,087
Points
1,849
Resorts Owned
WKORV, WKV, 2-SDO, 4-Kauai Beach Villas, Island Park Village (Yellowstone), Hyatt High Sierra, Dolphin's Cove (Anaheim)
You've got it flat out wrong. It's June 3, 2011.

I thought that was the day the world was coming to an end??? I need to check my calendar....
 

DeniseM

Moderator
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
57,668
Reaction score
9,087
Points
1,849
Resorts Owned
WKORV, WKV, 2-SDO, 4-Kauai Beach Villas, Island Park Village (Yellowstone), Hyatt High Sierra, Dolphin's Cove (Anaheim)
I go it all wrong! Kung Fun Panda II is being released that day.

The world is coming to an end the next day.....
 

funtime

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
2,388
Reaction score
144
Points
424
Location
Dallas
Since this is a legitimate question, the answer of course is that no one knows. For some of the public corporations like Marriott, (on Marriott board) tuggers have posted information relating to timeshares and their earnings from which you can see that the earnings number is a substantial number. One of the problems endemic to the industry is the two tiered - or even three tiered - nature of the business. Thus you can get a timeshare for relative pennies on ebay at the same time you can walk into a Marriott presentation in Hawaii and shell out $50,000. This problem will not improve as more people become internet savy and the transparancy of the internet establishes the disparity. As to sales prices for the mid tier non name resort, it appears that they are still in free fall. And as maintenance fees rise, the timeshares become harder to sell. The best thing is to learn to use your timeshare including learning how to rent it out when you are not using it, or sell it now (even at a loss) and upgrade vis a vis ebay to a timeshare that you really want. Funtime
 

John Cummings

TUG Lifetime Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
5,020
Reaction score
80
Points
433
Location
Murrieta, California
I don't see any recovery in the foreseeable future. I will be selling mine in 2 years as we don't wish to timeshare anymore. Hopefully it will be better but if not, I will find some way to get rid of it.

We have been timesharing for 23 years but are now more interested in other alternatives that more suit our lifestyle.
 

bigrick

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
1,015
Reaction score
0
Points
36
Location
Sac, CA
Hi-I'm wondering when, or maybe if, the resale market will get re-established-any reasoned opinions? I keep thinking there is value going begging, or else there was a mammoth bubble.
Anita

How soon do you think our economy will be back to the 'feel' of the 1980's-the early 2000's? You know -- back when people felt like they had their bills under control and had enough money left over to go on a regular vacation. So regular in fact that they bought a timeshare for $20,000 or more so they could lower their future vacation expenses. As soon as the economy is back to that point then, and only then, do I expect timeshare resale to firm up.

I think you 2011 people are overly optimistic!
 

bigrick

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
1,015
Reaction score
0
Points
36
Location
Sac, CA
It's a state of mind for me. Postive thinking and optimism help get me through the hard times. :)

I concur with the state of mind. Both help me get through the opportune times. Which is everyday in my book.

I took a class once that was titled 'The Chaotic Stock Market.' The key lesson was that it is always chaotic -- it's always going up, down, or sideways. How to take advantage of today's situation today is the key question everyday. Opportunity abounds!
 

John Cummings

TUG Lifetime Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
5,020
Reaction score
80
Points
433
Location
Murrieta, California
It's a state of mind for me. Postive thinking and optimism help get me through the hard times. :)

I am a very optimistic person but also a realist. None of this stuff bothers me very much personally as I take life as it comes and enjoy myself regardless.
 

jacknsara

KBV Forum Moderator
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 8, 2005
Messages
1,034
Reaction score
305
Points
444
Location
Mercer Island WA
Resorts Owned
Pahio Kauai Beach Villas, Pahio Shearwater
Hi-I'm wondering when, or maybe if, the resale market will get re-established-any reasoned opinions? I keep thinking there is value going begging, or else there was a mammoth bubble.
Anita
Aloha Anita,
Perhaps a focus on the conditions that would have to converge to cause an increase in resale prices would be useful in addressing your question.
Right now, supply greatly exceeds demand by so much that prices for many categories are zero or negative. In order for demand to exceed supply, either supply must diminish or demand must increase or both must occur.
Supply will not stop growing until all new development stops.
Let’s assume (hope) that demand picks up someday. Contributing factors include increase in size of the demographics for which timeshares have potential value and an increase in the percentage of each of those demographics that have the sense of wealth to commit to perpetual MF expenditure.
The following illustration is close to current reality. An ocean front condo at Kauai Beach Villas (whole ownership not PAHIO timeshare) sells for at least $520K. Divided by 52, that is a capital cost of $10K/week. Condominium association fees are less than timeshare MFs but not trivial.
Imagine buying the equivalent PAHIO KBV ocean front unit for an inflated price of $2K. You could buy 52 of those and pay MFs for about a dozen years before the total cost curves would intersect. If you believe that timeshare values will recover to at least 1/51 price of whole ownership in significantly less than a dozen years, then there is value going begging. Otherwise, it was all a mammoth bubble.
Jack
 

Patri

Tug Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
6,727
Reaction score
4,005
Points
648
How soon do you think our economy will be back to the 'feel' of the 1980's-the early 2000's? You know -- back when people felt like they had their bills under control and had enough money left over to go on a regular vacation. So regular in fact that they bought a timeshare for $20,000 or more so they could lower their future vacation expenses. As soon as the economy is back to that point then, and only then, do I expect timeshare resale to firm up.

I think you 2011 people are overly optimistic!

I long for those days. Economists say the recession is over but the jobs aren't back yet. People can get through these days with optimism, but the reality is that too many can't afford beyond the basics. The layoffs are STILL occurring (to a friend last week).
At prices today I'd love to pick up more t/s but it makes no sense. We don't have the spare cash for more maintenance fees and we don't have the time to travel more. :( I expect that will change in several years, but then the two t/s we have should accomodate us and we'll rent the other times.
 

PClapham

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
978
Reaction score
12
Points
378
Location
Cleveland
Resorts Owned
WorldMark
Foxrun
Thanks for the illustration, Jacandsara. Are you still going to Hawaii?
Anita
 

John Cummings

TUG Lifetime Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
5,020
Reaction score
80
Points
433
Location
Murrieta, California
The following illustration is close to current reality. An ocean front condo at Kauai Beach Villas (whole ownership not PAHIO timeshare) sells for at least $520K. Divided by 52, that is a capital cost of $10K/week. Condominium association fees are less than timeshare MFs but not trivial.
Imagine buying the equivalent PAHIO KBV ocean front unit for an inflated price of $2K. You could buy 52 of those and pay MFs for about a dozen years before the total cost curves would intersect. If you believe that timeshare values will recover to at least 1/51 price of whole ownership in significantly less than a dozen years, then there is value going begging. Otherwise, it was all a mammoth bubble.
Jack

Assuming $520K is the purchase price of the condo, there is a mistake in your calculations. You cannot just divide the cost of the Condo ( $520K ) by 52 and say that a week costs $10K. That would only be true if the Condo cost $520K /year. If you owned it for 10 years then the cost is just $1,000 /week or $500 /week for 20 years, etc.

By the way, $520K for an ocean front condo is pretty cheap. When I was in Puerto/Nuevo Vallarta Mexico 4 years ago, and ocean front condo typically cost over a million dollars.
 
Last edited:

e.bram

Guest
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
3,185
Reaction score
124
Points
399
Location
Fort Lee, NJ
It is mainly the off season weeks that are in the tank. Try to find and oceanfront summer week driving distance from a major metro area for sale. Not many, and if you do they are not giving them away.
 

JMAESD84

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 11, 2007
Messages
609
Reaction score
0
Points
16
Location
New Hampshire
Hi-I'm wondering when, or maybe if, the resale market will get re-established-any reasoned opinions? I keep thinking there is value going begging, or else there was a mammoth bubble.
Anita

This question suggests that a resale market for timeshares was ever "established". The resale of timeshares has always been inefficient. Those of us (myself included) who use eBay as a measure of resale market value have seen a steady decline. Folks familiar with this market don't want to pay more than the last few transactions that they've seen completed for equivalent units, thus contributing to a steady decline in price. At the same time however, any of us could be selling for more than what we paid by using alternative methods that ignore the eBay market.

The question becomes how do you connect with buyers unfamiliar with the eBay market? Try to connect with buyers that have purchased from the developer and your price while superior to that fetched by an eBay sale will still look like a tremendous bargin to those who've purchased only form the developer.

Just like you must work the exchange systems to get the best value trade, you must also work the sales angles to your advantage as well. Of course, this said more easily than accomplished but the effort is worth the reward.
 

John Cummings

TUG Lifetime Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
5,020
Reaction score
80
Points
433
Location
Murrieta, California
This question suggests that a resale market for timeshares was ever "established". The resale of timeshares has always been inefficient. Those of us (myself included) who use eBay as a measure of resale market value have seen a steady decline. Folks familiar with this market don't want to pay more than the last few transactions that they've seen completed for equivalent units, thus contributing to a steady decline in price. At the same time however, any of us could be selling for more than what we paid by using alternative methods that ignore the eBay market.

The question becomes how do you connect with buyers unfamiliar with the eBay market? Try to connect with buyers that have purchased from the developer and your price while superior to that fetched by an eBay sale will still look like a tremendous bargin to those who've purchased only form the developer.

Just like you must work the exchange systems to get the best value trade, you must also work the sales angles to your advantage as well. Of course, this said more easily than accomplished but the effort is worth the reward.

I agree 100%.
 

weh8625

Tug Review Crew: Rookie
TUG Member
Joined
Dec 8, 2008
Messages
107
Reaction score
0
Points
16
Location
Houston, Texas
Cheaper to rent

For me, since I don't own a timeshare, I am part of the rental market.
Since rental rates are often cheaper than maintenance fees, I have no incentive to buy. Rental rates are cheap because many owners are not going on vacation and have a week they're willing to part with for cheap.

When rental rates are quite a bit higher than maintenance fees, then it would make more sense for me to buy a timeshare in order to lock in my future years use at a discount to rental rates.

When enough people like me start buying resale weeks, then the market will pick up.

Just my 2 cents.
 

talkamotta

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 7, 2005
Messages
2,065
Reaction score
167
Points
274
Location
Sandy, UT
In 1994 when I bought my first timeshare from the developer and later saw the same thing on ebay for (at that time) less than half what I paid. Thats when the recession started. Or at least thats when I became wiser.

My next purchases were for alot less. The $100 timeshare that I bought that I have never seen but I have traded it well. The Hawaii timeshares I bought very cheap but have gone even lower but that still doesnt take away the joy of Hawaii.

The maintenance fees are something I need to budget even more now, but I DO. For now, the value of the mf + purchase price is still a BIG PLUS for me. Even if the value of the timeshares on the resale market go down, I dont think about it, just like if the value of my home goes down. Im not planning on selling.

For those who find that renting is more beneficial, thats good. We need renters. Its a wise vacationer who tries out the market before they jump in. Maybe in a couple of years, you might like camping or cruising better. Who knows. Just like for the homes I own now and have renters living in them; they arent financially able or stable in thier lives to commit to a mortgage. Some people prefer to rent.

The recession has hit everyone. All my five kids or thier spouses have been laid off, luckily, they all found jobs. My heart goes out to all of you that have been hit hard financially. It has been a hard couple of years.
 
Top