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College Football Playoff Predictions!
- Thread starter Clemson Fan
- Start date
Clemson Fan
TUG Member
Mizzou is only a 2 touchdown underdog vs Alabama... anything can happen, right???
Ya gotta figure if they played 20 times they would maybe win once (5%) if they get like 5 turnovers to none of their own.
He'll probably need a good game in the Pac-12 championship, but he appears to be in the lead. It's between him and Gordon.
Let me put it this way - do you notice anyone playing better college football than Mariota?
And the Rams have been saying that for 10 years now too!
Sad, but true. We need another grocery checker out of UNI!
Clemson Fan
TUG Member
I figured FSU would be #1 after the ACC smashed the SEC this past weekend! :hysterical:
Then again, there's only one "ACC" member on the committee who happens to also be Clemson's AD.
TUGBrian
Administrator
oddly enough, 4 is a better slot than 2 or 3 for FSU given the location of the playoff games.
Its hard to imagine the Playoff committee had any other scenario in mind vs putting FSU vs Alabama against each other in the sugar bowl...and having oregon vs (whoever) playing in Pasadena.
Its hard to imagine the Playoff committee had any other scenario in mind vs putting FSU vs Alabama against each other in the sugar bowl...and having oregon vs (whoever) playing in Pasadena.
Kind of strange. I'm not sure FSU meets the "eye test" but they are undefeated for almost two years, and they had some decent OOC wins. Of course, there could be any number of factors in play here, including ranking to give the most desirable semifinal games. I put nothing outside the realm of possible reasons the committee does what they do.
What's also kind of odd is that going by their own rankings, of the 3 one loss teams that are in the top 4, TCU has the best loss, then Oregon, then Bama, yet their ranking is reversed.
Clemson Fan
TUG Member
I actually think that played a significant role in their thinking. People were speculating if they would "re-seed" the 4 teams to put the east coast schools 1 and 4 and the west coast schools 2 and 3.
Strange as well. Regardless of how good or bad a team is an undefeated needs to be given a little benefit of the doubt.
But a conference championship, semi-final and final may be too much travel for some teams fans. But big time college football should not have to worry about that.
Anyone have a link online of the possible outcomes. With a win Arizona will be in the mix even K State and GT with chaos. That makes 9 teams and to catch everything a 1 loss FSU and 2 loss Alabama and Oregon. I think making the playoff coming off a loss regardless of who would really take away from the playoff format. It is great so many of the top teams are in action. More exciting then a number 4 o5 MSU sitting at home hoping for other teams to fall.
Any benefit in just matching 1 vs 2 in conference championship games going forward instead of the winners of the east and west or north and south? Divisions barely matter as it is now. Just have a few protected games for each team.
If anyone has some stroke I am free next year to join the committee.
But a conference championship, semi-final and final may be too much travel for some teams fans. But big time college football should not have to worry about that.
Anyone have a link online of the possible outcomes. With a win Arizona will be in the mix even K State and GT with chaos. That makes 9 teams and to catch everything a 1 loss FSU and 2 loss Alabama and Oregon. I think making the playoff coming off a loss regardless of who would really take away from the playoff format. It is great so many of the top teams are in action. More exciting then a number 4 o5 MSU sitting at home hoping for other teams to fall.
Any benefit in just matching 1 vs 2 in conference championship games going forward instead of the winners of the east and west or north and south? Divisions barely matter as it is now. Just have a few protected games for each team.
If anyone has some stroke I am free next year to join the committee.
TUGBrian
Administrator
Couldnt help but laugh listening to the playoff chairman actually make the claim that the reason TCU got the nod over baylor and OSU, is in part because they have the best loss.
What sort of bizzaro world do we live in where not only does baylor not get credit for beating TCU, but TCU actually benefits additionally from being beaten by baylor in the first place because they are ranked so high.
What sort of bizzaro world do we live in where not only does baylor not get credit for beating TCU, but TCU actually benefits additionally from being beaten by baylor in the first place because they are ranked so high.
Now that TCU has the three spot, does Florida St have to win big to hold off Baylor or Ohio St?
:hysterical::hysterical::hysterical:
bogey21
TUG Member
Now that TCU has the three spot, does Florida St have to win big to hold off Baylor or Ohio St?
No matter what happens this coming weekend the Selection Committee will find a way to keep TCU out.
George
Clemson Fan
TUG Member
Baylor can lose to Kansas State. If that happens TCU will stay in. If Baylor and TCU win, then I think you're right and they will flip Baylor over TCU.
I now really don't want to see OSU get in. With a new QB I just think they would get rolled by Alabama. I don't want to see Alabama get such an easy game.
If Baylor loses there goes TCU's good loss which put them at 3. I think Baylor should be 4th if they win.
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A couple of mathematically oriented comments...
Let us presume that the quality of college football teams lie along a standard bell shaped curve. As you move away from either of the extremes, the number of teams at whatever level increases until you get to the middle of the curve. What that means is that as you allow more teams into the playoffs, there will be more teams at almost the same level of quality as the last team let in. Thus, while it might be hard to decide which two teams most deserve to play for the championship, it will be even harder to decide which should be the fourth team that deserves to be in the playoff (so this is why the selection committee will surely get criticized). I might add, that the amount of controversy over which team should be the last team allowed in would only intensify if the number of teams in a playoff increases to eight.
Let us suppose that one team is decidedly better than the others in the top four. They would beat any of the other top teams four out of five times they were to play each other. (I doubt that any team is good enough that they would beat another top four team every time they played. Look at the SEC.) With a single game playoff, the probability that the dominant team would win the national championship would be .80 (eighty percent). If, however, they have to go through a two game playoff, the probability that this better team would win the championship drops to .64 (sixty-four percent). A college playoff system might be good for generating revenue (and distracting "student athletes" from their academics - most players on even the best team will never play a game in the NFL), it is not a great system for determining which team deserves to be declared the national champion.
(Okay, I know that these comments will not be popular, but they are what mathematics tells us.)
Let us presume that the quality of college football teams lie along a standard bell shaped curve. As you move away from either of the extremes, the number of teams at whatever level increases until you get to the middle of the curve. What that means is that as you allow more teams into the playoffs, there will be more teams at almost the same level of quality as the last team let in. Thus, while it might be hard to decide which two teams most deserve to play for the championship, it will be even harder to decide which should be the fourth team that deserves to be in the playoff (so this is why the selection committee will surely get criticized). I might add, that the amount of controversy over which team should be the last team allowed in would only intensify if the number of teams in a playoff increases to eight.
Let us suppose that one team is decidedly better than the others in the top four. They would beat any of the other top teams four out of five times they were to play each other. (I doubt that any team is good enough that they would beat another top four team every time they played. Look at the SEC.) With a single game playoff, the probability that the dominant team would win the national championship would be .80 (eighty percent). If, however, they have to go through a two game playoff, the probability that this better team would win the championship drops to .64 (sixty-four percent). A college playoff system might be good for generating revenue (and distracting "student athletes" from their academics - most players on even the best team will never play a game in the NFL), it is not a great system for determining which team deserves to be declared the national champion.
(Okay, I know that these comments will not be popular, but they are what mathematics tells us.)
Here's the problem with the playoffs... in the past, the argument over who deserved to be national champion was made after the season was over. You'd hear about how number two or number 3 got robbed. So now we've replaced it with a system where everyone wants to argue who should be the third or fourth team in before the playoffs occur, and that's regardless whether anyone believes that third or fourth or fifth team really deserves to be the real champion.
I don't care if you made it 16 teams, the teams left on the edge will always be stirring controversy. There is no magic formula to all this, but we've improved and it's better than the ways of the past.
I don't care if you made it 16 teams, the teams left on the edge will always be stirring controversy. There is no magic formula to all this, but we've improved and it's better than the ways of the past.
Yes, of course that's true. But a logically reasonable way to determine the size of a playoff field would be to make it very large, then reduce it based on results, because quantifying team "quality" is highly subjective.
Let's say, hypothetically, that there was a 32 team football playoff. If the teams were seeded 1-32 (in a manner similar to the current CFP ranking system, for instance) after some time, there presumably would be sufficient data to indicate that no team higher than say a 11 seed had ever won the playoff. So the field could logically be reduced to 12 teams with little fear that a potential champion was being excluded. Sure there would be grumblings from the teams that barely didn't qualify, but statistics would indicate that their chances of winning the playoff were very small.
The most glaring problem with the current system isn't that it's statistically a less than ideal way to determine a champion, it's that championship caliber teams are omitted entirely from the process. While I think we'd all agree, based on experience, that 32 teams is far too many, it's nearly as obvious that 4 is too few. The right size, IMO, is somewhere in the 8 to 12 range.