College Football Playoff Predictions!

Id think far less folks would have such an issue with it if they didnt arbitrarily make up the metrics and values they use to "rank" these teams as they go along.

Elan said:

... The most glaring problem with the current system isn't that it's statistically a less than ideal way to determine a champion, it's that championship caliber teams are omitted entirely from the process. While I think we'd all agree, based on experience, that 32 teams is far too many, it's nearly as obvious that 4 is too few. The right size, IMO, is somewhere in the 8 to 12 range.

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Yes and no.

I agree that the best team is almost certainly (maybe even certainly) in the top eight. (I suspect the top four would do it.) The problem comes after that.

The "best" team does not always win an individual game (or, in baseball, a series). If they did, then we could automatically eliminate any one loss team from the championship series because, by losing, they have proven that they are not the best team.

As you expand the size of the playoff system, what you are doing is reducing the odds of the best team winning (by putting them more at risk by having them have to win a series of individual encounters).

Personally (and I know people not going to like this), I preferred the old system with no championship game. It did not reduce some very interesting bowl matchups to a who cares status.

Did the polls afterwards always choose the "best" team as the national champion. I suspect that they were at least as accurate as a playoff system. If two (or three) teams all ended up thinking that they should have been declared champions, for a bunch of college kids most of whom will never play professional football, I don't think that is such a bad thing.

(Remember when a fairly mediocre St. Louis Cardinal team won the World Series. The idea that they were not the best team was so universal The Onion printed a great spoof: Tony La Russa apologizes for winning the World Series.)

I think the old bcs system did indeed make all other bowls meaningless..

the goal was to always put the 1 vs 2 team against each other in a final bowl game...thus the winner (be it 1 or 2) was crowned the champion.

that said, the OLD OLD bowl system where all the bowls played out, then a champion was decided based on another ranking after they were all complete...well...im sure that would have created just as much controversy if social media/etc was back then...what it is today.

I am happy with 4. Makes the regular season mean something.

If too many teams get in we are not having this discussion. Too many teams and the first round needs to be played on campus. It is tough when ever year more than half the leagues will not be included. The bottom conferences even before the season starts. But they have 0 shot on the most part.

I'm going to state my previous post more clearer... for those proposing more than four teams, what team outside of the top four do you think is capable of beating Alabama right now? Because that's the purpose of the playoffs - to get the "true" champion.

well if you asked me, I would not have given ole miss a shot at beating alabama.

nor would I have taken arkansas and 1 points in a bet...
nor would I have taken LSU and 7 points
nor would I have taken MSU and 5 points.

alabama at home, and alabama on the road are two very different teams.

TUGBrian said:

well if you asked me, I would not have given ole miss a shot at beating alabama.

nor would I have taken arkansas and 1 points in a bet...
nor would I have taken LSU and 7 points
nor would I have taken MSU and 5 points.

alabama at home, and alabama on the road are two very different teams.

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Using that kind of logic then you could make the case that the playoffs should be about 32 teams then. l'm not buying it.

further expanding on an earlier post for comparison...

the "complete championship team thats so perfectly rounded it has the best shot at winning it all" has on its resume of wins:

a 5 loss team by 10
a 6 loss team by 1
a 6 loss team by 14
a 4 loss team by 7
a 4 loss team by 11

and losing to a 3 loss team by 6

While im not arguing that FSU has dominated as it did last year (no team in history has, but folks seem to forget that)....its utterly ridiculous that one can claim alabama is "so complete" and "controls games" and is hands down the better team....unless you simply are ignoring half the games they played all year.


they also (not even including these games) have played 3 out of conference basically division 2 school cupcakes, thus making this teams entire season based on the results of 2 games alabama has played and done well in by "winning easily".

these 2 games are

Florida
Texas A&M

both of these teams are 5 loss teams.

I don't think any amount of sour grapes over how the ranking committee "thinks" is going to affect who is in the 4 team playoff.

A football game has so many variables that it is impossible to play the same game twice - even if you played the same two teams ten times, you would STILL just have ten different games.

A schedule and a season and 128 different teams add a multitude of complexities on top of that - making it IMPOSSIBLE to figure out who would win a game without ACTUALLY playing that game.

All the ranking in the world is just "best guessing" about who would win if "so and so" played old "what's their name" on Friday in Nashville.

I am just glad the Ducks will get a chance (if they win out) to PLAY for the title this year - since they were x'd out last year even though they were a better team than either Auburn or FSU :rofl:

ampaholic said:

I am just glad the Ducks will get a chance (if they win out) to PLAY for the title this year - since they were x'd out last year even though they were a better team than either Auburn or FSU :rofl:

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stanford and arizona last year disagree with your logic...

TUGBrian said:

stanford and arizona last year disagree with your logic...

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Stanford and Arizona were also both better than Auburn and FSU last year.

Just my opinion - and since neither Auburn or FSU actually beat Stanford, Arizona or Oregon ON THE FIELD - it's all just that, "Opinion".

"Roger" said:

Yes and no.

I agree that the best team is almost certainly (maybe even certainly) in the top eight. (I suspect the top four would do it.) The problem comes after that.

The "best" team does not always win an individual game (or, in baseball, a series). If they did, then we could automatically eliminate any one loss team from the championship series because, by losing, they have proven that they are not the best team.

As you expand the size of the playoff system, what you are doing is reducing the odds of the best team winning (by putting them more at risk by having them have to win a series of individual encounters).

Personally (and I know people not going to like this), I preferred the old system with no championship game. It did not reduce some very interesting bowl matchups to a who cares status.

Did the polls afterwards always choose the "best" team as the national champion. I suspect that they were at least as accurate as a playoff system. If two (or three) teams all ended up thinking that they should have been declared champions, for a bunch of college kids most of whom will never play professional football, I don't think that is such a bad thing.

(Remember when a fairly mediocre St. Louis Cardinal team won the World Series. The idea that they were not the best team was so universal The Onion printed a great spoof: Tony La Russa apologizes for winning the World Series.)

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I get the exponential probability decrease, and yes, occasionally a really good team gets upset by a lesser team. But rarely does a truly undeserving team make it all the way through 3 rounds to win a championship. I mean if Marshall were to get into an 8 team playoff this year, and thump Alabama, Oregon and TCU in consecutive weeks to win the championship, would we all be saying that it was a total fluke, or would we be saying we underestimated Marshall? I know that for me the answer is clearly the latter. Bottom line is that statistically there's not a significant enough sample size to clearly discern out of 120ish D1 teams who the best 4 are based on 12 or 13 games each. So increase the playoff field and let the play on the field decide. If Marshall didn't belong in the playoff, they'd get their asses handed to them in the first round and be home for Christmas. No harm, no foul.

BTW, your scenario has been true in the NFL for years. But how many years end with folks disputing who the NFL champions are? Not many, if any. A lot of years a 14-2 team lays an egg and loses to a 9-7 team. That may be a fluke, or one off. But if the 9-7 team proceeds to win 2-3 more games to claim the title, it's hard to call that a fluke. Furthermore, if a 14-2 team can't beat a 9-7 team when it matters most, then are they really the best team?

Include as many teams as practical, and settle it on the field. That's the most fair way.

ace2000 said:

I'm going to state my previous post more clearer... for those proposing more than four teams, what team outside of the top four do you think is capable of beating Alabama right now? Because that's the purpose of the playoffs - to get the "true" champion.

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I think there's a lot of teams capable of beating Alabama in the course of a 3 round playoff. Certainly anyone in the top 12 (Ole Miss is #12). If Alabama is the obvious best team, why play the games? Or, if they're clearly the best team, then they should have no problem beating 3 teams in a playoff. Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather let the play on the field decide who's best rather than a bunch of stuffed shirts in a conference room.

To carry the concept to the extreme, imagine there were 128 D1 teams and no regular season. In place of the regular season, each weekend was a round of playoffs. While Oregon or Bama might get upset in the second week, it'd be hard to argue that the 1 undefeated team at the end of 7 weeks was undeserving of the title.

ampaholic said:

Stanford and Arizona were also both better than Auburn and FSU last year.

Just my opinion - and since neither Auburn or FSU actually beat Stanford, Arizona or Oregon ON THE FIELD - it's all just that, "Opinion".

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not sure what metric you use to base that claim, certainly no factual ones.

welcome to your opinion though!

fun read here

https://floridastate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1711509

some good quotes:

Did you know that the 1972 Miami Dolphins, the only NFL team to ever finish a season undefeated, had a number of scares from average to below-average opponents? They beat a Buffalo Bills team, which went 4-9-1 that season, by one point. They beat the Minnesota Vikings, which finished 7-7, by two points. And they beat the New York Jets, who also went 7-7, by four. Less than half of their 17 victories were decided by more than 10 points.

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Never in recent history has a team from a power conference gone undefeated, in a season when every other team has a loss, and been ranked lower than No. 1.

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Clemson Fan said:

...
I now really don't want to see OSU get in. With a new QB I just think they would get rolled by Alabama. I don't want to see Alabama get such an easy game.

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Wow, good thing the NFL doesn't use that logic and deny teams a shot at the Super Bowl because the QB got injured before the big game. There were a few backups to win the big game. (Don't ask me to name them, but I've heard them over the weekend.

I know it's a different system and no one decides who's going to play, the teams decide but your statement may or may not be close to what the teams are going to decide Saturday.

Why don't we wait until Saturday's games are played before we anoint Alabama or bury any OSU or any other team. Let's play the games on the field.

You're assuming if OSU wins they will be #4, that is not a foregone conclusion either.

If OSU has a good team and can win with another new QB this year, they could move all the way to number one, depending on the other games. I'm not predicting that but bringing up the possibility.

A letter of thanks

OSU and Michigan hate each other. the fans, the players, the coaches, everybody.

When my wife and I saw Devin Gardner consoling T. J. Barrett when he got hurt we commented on what a nice move it was on his part.

We were not the only ones to feel that way.

I wish this young man luck in his future.

http://collegespun.com/big-ten/ohio...-a-thank-you-letter-for-consoling-j-t-barrett

csxjohn said:

Wow, good thing the NFL doesn't use that logic and deny teams a shot at the Super Bowl because the QB got injured before the big game. There were a few backups to win the big game. (Don't ask me to name them, but I've heard them over the weekend.

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We just talked about one of them... Kurt Warner getting his chance when Trent Green was injured. I am a Rams fan and thought their season was over. The head coach was in tears after the announcement (seriously), and then Warner carried them throughout the season all the way to the title. Nobody gave the Rams a chance that year.

I do not think a 12th place team deserves a shot at the title game. They had their chance earlier in the season to earn it. I do not want the games watered down. In fact there are too many bowl games already. In an expanded playoff how much are the athletes going to get paid? The break between regular and bowl games is used for practice for the following year as well. If a team is eliminated in the first round they lose weeks of practice time. Bowl games are supposed to be fun.

There are still rams fans?

csxjohn said:

Wow, good thing the NFL doesn't use that logic and deny teams a shot at the Super Bowl because the QB got injured before the big game. There were a few backups to win the big game. (Don't ask me to name them, but I've heard them over the weekend.

I know it's a different system and no one decides who's going to play, the teams decide but your statement may or may not be close to what the teams are going to decide Saturday.

Why don't we wait until Saturday's games are played before we anoint Alabama or bury any OSU or any other team. Let's play the games on the field.

You're assuming if OSU wins they will be #4, that is not a foregone conclusion either.

If OSU has a good team and can win with another new QB this year, they could move all the way to number one, depending on the other games. I'm not predicting that but bringing up the possibility.

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Boy a couple of weeks ago you were lamenting the fact that OSU was getting punished for losing AT HOME to a BAD VT team by 2 TD's because it was only JT Barrett's 2nd game! Now they should let them into the playoff with their 3rd string QB playing in only his 2nd game as well when there are probably going to be other just as deserving teams?

I'm fine letting the games play out. With Barrett's injury though, IMO, they would be less competitive against an Alabama then a TCU or Baylor and in the end I want to see Alabama lose. Also, if OSU wins I'm actually NOT assuming they'll be #4. I actually don't think they'll get in now ahead of TCU or Baylor even with a win against Wisconsin whereas before Barrett's injury I was actually predicting they would get in. BTW, Vegas has OSU as an underdog against Wisconsin.

ace2000 said:

I'm going to state my previous post more clearer... for those proposing more than four teams, what team outside of the top four do you think is capable of beating Alabama right now? Because that's the purpose of the playoffs - to get the "true" champion.

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While I do think Alabama should be #1 and they're the odds on favorite to win it all, I think there are a lot of teams that could upset Alabama. Heck, if Auburn was just marginally effective in the red zone they should've beaten Alabama in the Iron bowl.

I honestly think the best playoff system would be 8 teams and give the 5 power conference champs automatic bids and let the committee choose 3 wildcards.

heres to hoping it expands from 4 in a year or so.

And here's to hoping the topic regarding the number of playoff teams never comes up in this thread again...

Clemson Fan said:

Boy a couple of weeks ago you were lamenting the fact that OSU was getting punished for losing AT HOME to a BAD VT team by 2 TD's because it was only JT Barrett's 2nd game! Now they should let them into the playoff with their 3rd string QB playing in only his 2nd game as well when there are probably going to be other just as deserving teams?
I'm fine letting the games play out. With Barrett's injury though, IMO, they would be less competitive against an Alabama then a TCU or Baylor and in the end I want to see Alabama lose. Also, if OSU wins I'm actually NOT assuming they'll be #4. I actually don't think they'll get in now ahead of TCU or Baylor even with a win against Wisconsin whereas before Barrett's injury I was actually predicting they would get in. BTW, Vegas has OSU as an underdog against Wisconsin.

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I'm not saying they should be "let in." I'm saying it's a team effort and if they earn their way in with their record they should play.

They were the favorite until Barrett broke his ankle and I think they are going to have a hard time of it against Wisconsin. Saturday will be a fun day, win or lose.

I would not have any problem with them being lower now due to that bad loss because they should have won even with a new QB in there. That committee has made stranger moves as documented here.

csxjohn said:

I'm not saying they should be "let in." I'm saying it's a team effort and if they earn their way in with their record they should play.

They were the favorite until Barrett broke his ankle and I think they are going to have a hard time of it against Wisconsin. Saturday will be a fun day, win or lose.

I would not have any problem with them being lower now due to that bad loss because they should have won even with a new QB in there. That committee has made stranger moves as documented here.

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I think overall we actually agree.

You're an OSU fan and that's cool.

I'm not an OSU fan although I will say I do think Urban Meyer has improved them considerably and I don't think they're as overrated as I have thought at times in the past 15 years.