Question on the timing of airline ticket purchases to Florida?

A recently retired former colleague here in New England, who plans to go to Florida for a few weeks late this coming winter (...and maybe also in future winters, God willing and if he likes it there) asked me a question last night that I simply have no personal knowledge or experience to answer --- when is it best to buy airline tickets to avoid holiday spikes and / or to find the lowest fares?

His particular interest pertains very specifically and only to round trip travel to / from Florida from New England (presumably from BOS (Boston, MA, since that's closest to him) and only in winter months, more specifically in February and March. He is a Boston Choke Red Sox baseball fan who will surely go to see "his team" at Spring Training in Fort Myers at Jet Blue Park, so presumably he would fly into RSW (the larger regional airport in Fort Myers, not the smaller Charlotte County airport in nearby Punta Gorda).

Costs aside (that's not my question --- and current fares are easy to look up in a few seconds and a few keystrokes), his / my question is whether there is actually any sort of predictable pattern with the airlines as to when fares to FL from New England get (ahem) "bumped up" to whack the Snowbirds and / or other holiday / school winter vacation travelers? Would it pay for him to purchase tickets long in advance for this specific itinerary (BOS/RSW/BOS), or would doing so just be buying prematurely and perhaps buying "too high"? I for one simply dunno and have no idea.

Mere speculation is neither sought nor particularly helpful, but any observations and input or suggestions based upon actual first hand knowledge and experience would certainly be welcomed and much appreciated. This is probably something that I should learn more about myself, although my own travels south generally have involved driving and train travel, rather than flying.

Thanks in advance.

Flights.google.com and Skyscanner are amongst the fare prediction sites.

Use to get used to what an average fare looks like and plan around that.

My son visits from the Boston area, we live near the fort Myers airport. He has been watching since July specifically for presidents week. Very high and don't go down at all. Same problem every year. I give him two thousand for three tickets, won't be enough this year


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I have successfully used YAPTA to follow fares. On the site, you can register specific flights and specific dates along with CURRENT price. YAPTA will then send email alerts each time fares drop and weekly fare updates as well. It does take some work but in my nind, well worth it if you are trying to minimize expense.

Like trying to predict wave patterns. When your friend sees a price he likes buy it. Closer to check in there can be more variance. Higher or lower. The more options that he has the cheaper he can do it.

Fares depend on availability. So if the particular flight is filling fast, it will go up in price! Here in AZ, fares go up for spring training, so I assume the same for FL, best bet is to purchase at least 60 days out.

Now, if he flies SWA, if the fare goes down, he can call and get a fare adjustment as credit on his account...

Peak and Off Peak

AS long as you do not fly during the times below, airfare will be reasonable. I fly to Florida 5-6 times per year;

1- holiday weeks - i.e. Easter President, MLK, spring break
2- returning home on a Sunday

Set up alerts on airfarewatchdog.com