The TravelGuy Approved Cost-Per-Night Summary!

travelguy · Oct 18, 2007

I've spent some time compiling a spreadsheet of the membership programs of the major Destination Clubs. I've done this in an attempt to get an accurate comparison of the programs. I believe I've managed to get not only one, but several "apples-to-apples" comparisons of the value of each DCs membership program.

There has been a number of discussions on the ways Cost-Per-Night (CPN) is determined and I've come up with the "TravelGuy Approved" method of CPN computations, or as I like to call it ... the Definitive CPN! I spent many long decades developing my secret CPN methodology with the help of several wise monks, a thing called in-ter-net, caffeinated beverages from the Seattle area, the Star Wars soundtrack (episode 4, not that new crap), various fur bearing household pets and wives #3 and #4. SO, lets not beat up TravelGuy for his methodology of determine CPN ... let's all just bask in the warm glow of DC CPN information on ER, HCC, PE/UR and all the other acronyms.

Here's part of the Assumptions used for my CPN calcs:

Assumes 10 year ownership of DC membership.
Amortizes the non-refundable portion of the membership deposit over 10 years.
Applies 5% A.P.R. opportunity cost to the refundable portion of the membership deposit.
Equity in the form of payments to members or increases in the value of refundable membership deposits are not factored in.

Here are the areas of comparison:

Total Cost-per-Night - You know what this is.
Total Cost-per-Night per $1 Million of Home Value - This is the CPN divided by the DC's average value of home. This is what you pay per night for each Mil of house.
Total Cost-per-Night per Bedroom - This is the CPN divided by the DCs average bedrooms per property. This is what you pay each night per bedroom

Also notice that I've throw in a timeshare for comparison. It's a HGVC 5000 pt, 1 bedroom timeshare that can be reserved on Holidays and peak time periods. Note - The timeshare is at the bottom of the list so you have to scroll down to see it.

Here is a summary of info from the spreadsheet. TUG does not support the attachment of spreadsheet files at this date so some manually formated text (scribed by the monks) is what you get:

Code:

[B][COLOR="Purple"]                                           TOTAL COST  TOTAL COST  TOTAL COST
                                            PER NIGHT   PER NIGHT   PER NIGHT
 CLUB                   TIER                            /$1M HOME   /BEDROOM [/COLOR][/B]
 Exclusive Resorts      Elite                  $1,621       $540        $405 
 Exclusive Resorts      Executive              $2,073 	    $691        $518 
 Exclusive Resorts      Affilite               $2,247 	    $749        $562 
 Exclusive Resorts      Associate              [B][COLOR="Red"]$2,367[/COLOR][/B]       $789        [B][COLOR="Red"]$592 [/COLOR][/B]
 Private Escapes        Pinnacle               $1,226 	    $409        $273 
 Ultimate Resort Elite  Platinum Plan          $1,405       $468        $351 
 Ultimate Resort Elite  Gold Plan              $1,855 	    $618        $464 
 Ultimate Resort Elite  Silver Plan            $2,256       $752        $564 
 Ultimate Resort Elite  Bronze Plan            $2,256 	    $752        $564 
 Ultimate Resort        Platinum Plan            $948       $632        $237 
 Ultimate Resort        Gold Plan              $1,214       $809        $304 
 Ultimate Resort        Silver Plan            $1,460       [B][COLOR="Red"]$973[/COLOR][/B]        $365 
 Ultimate Resort        Bronze Plan            $1,454       $970        $364 
 Quintess               60 Night Non Holiday   $1,485       $371        $371 
 Quintess               45 Night Holiday       $1,683 	    $421        $421 
 Quintess               30 Night Holiday       $1,653 	    $413        $413 
 Quintess               15 Night Non Holiday   $1,742 	    $436        $436 
 BelleHavens            Explorer               $1,075       $537        $269 
 BelleHavens            Voyager                $1,115 	    $558        $279 
 BelleHavens            Adventurer             $1,163 	    $582        $291 
 BelleHavens            Traveler               $1,207 	    $604        $302 
 Private Escapes        Platinum                 $735 	    $490        $184 
 Private Escapes        Platinum Preview       $1,080 	    $720        $270 
 Private Escapes        Premiere                 $431 	    $539        $144 
 Private Escapes        Premiere Preview         $635       $794        $212 
 High Country Club      Group                    $367 	    $431        $122 
 High Country Club      Private                  $297       [B][COLOR="Blue"]$350[/COLOR][/B]         [B][COLOR="Blue"]$99 [/COLOR][/B]
 High Country Club      Affiliate                $349       $410        $116 
 High Country Club      Associate                $399       $470        $133 
 High Country Club      Trial                    $430       $506        $143 
 HGVC Timeshare	        5000 pts                 [COLOR="blue"][B]$228[/B][/COLOR] 	    $570        $228

Low Cost is in Blue
High Cost is in Red

Interesting stuff eh?

Kagehitokiri · Oct 18, 2007

very nice work

although i must admit im quite partial to the choral pieces on the scores for SW episodes 1>3.

BTW i believe as a tug member, you can attach files to your posts.
(like the actual excel file)

Steamboat Bill · Oct 18, 2007

Great job....it is amazing to see a DC cost $99 per night per bedroom...these are Motel 6 prices!

I also like the PE and BH price points.

Tedpilot · Oct 18, 2007

Great job Doug, it would be great if you could attach the file to share...

Ted

travelguy · Oct 18, 2007

Kagehitokiri said:
very nice work

although i must admit im quite partial to the choral pieces on the scores for SW episodes 1>3.

BTW i believe as a tug member, you can attach files to your posts.
(like the actual excel file)

Thanks.

Nope, you can't attach a spreadsheet or even paste one into a forum post. See this thread where I asked the question: http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?p=408981#post408981

travelguy · Oct 18, 2007

Tedpilot said:
Great job Doug, it would be great if you could attach the file to share...

Ted

I would love to attach the .xls file but can't (see the previous post). I even had to cut out a lot of information from the text file to get it to fit.

Kagehitokiri · Oct 18, 2007

ah, 100K limit. yeah not gonna happen with an MS product

NeilGoBlue · Oct 18, 2007

travelguy said:
[*]Equity in the form of payments to members or increases in the value of refundable membership deposits are not factored in.

Travel,

I understand that you can't factor everything in.. but, since the main attribute of Bellehavens and Crescendo is equity appreciation (or at least protection), could you at least factor in a 1-3 percent per year appreciation for these clubs?

Kagehitokiri · Oct 18, 2007

speaking of crescendo's appreciation >
http://www.heliumreport.com/archives/658-crescendo-real-estate-portfolio-appreciates-8-8-in-2006

vineyarder · Oct 18, 2007

Travelguy,

Since PE is still offering unlimited usage, how many days per year are you basing your calculations on? Clearly that will have a huge impact on the per night costs... Someone who uses 28 days a year will be paying substantially more per night than someone who uses 60 or 70 nights per year...

Also, your figures for some of the clubs seems to be off; for example:

HCC trial membership; $20K deposit @ 5% = $1000 opportunity cost, plus $1750 dues, = $2750 total cost, divided by 7 nights = $393 per night, but spreadsheet says $430; perhaps your spreadsheet had the deposit as 80% refundable rather than 100% refundable?

Same with PE Premiere Preview & PE Platinum Preview; they also seem to be higher on the spreadsheet than in actuality, maybe the same reason?

travelguy · Oct 19, 2007

So much for basking .....

So much for basking in the warm glow of DC CPN information. Somehow I knew there would be suggestions and questions on the TravelGuy methodology.

NeilGoBlue said:
Travel,

I understand that you can't factor everything in.. but, since the main attribute of Bellehavens and Crescendo is equity appreciation (or at least protection), could you at least factor in a 1-3 percent per year appreciation for these clubs?

I'm all for assigning a value to the "Equity" DCs, just don't know how to do it in a way that will be universally accepted by all mankind. Future predictions on property appreciation are hard to predict, let alone this type of luxury vacation property.

Your appreciation factor of 1 - 3 percent per year seems quite reasonable. I know some published appreciation percentages during the short history of DCs are much higher but may be very hard to sustain over a 10 year period. I'm also not quite clear on how much of the actual market appreciation filters down to the member deposit.

Let's see if we can get a consensus on this before I go back to the cave and revamp the spreadsheets. I'd suggest a factor at 50% of the 5% A.P.R. opportunity cost to the refundable portion of the membership deposit. This makes the equity appreciation factor at 2.5% A.P.R.. This allows both numbers to be conservative and equity would be adjusted upward as the investment return factor is adjusted upward.

I'd like to get thoughts from the board on this remembering to keep-it-simple.

vineyarder said:
Since PE is still offering unlimited usage, how many days per year are you basing your calculations on? Clearly that will have a huge impact on the per night costs... Someone who uses 28 days a year will be paying substantially more per night than someone who uses 60 or 70 nights per year...?

PE is the only DC where I included some type of additional "days" for unlimited use even though several DCs have a similar membership program for "unlimited" use. I believe that the use of PE properties is unlimited but the number of days booked at any point in time IS limited. Therefore, the number of "unlimited" days that can realistically be used is in inverse proportion to the number of long-term reservations that a member has made. The scribing monks refer to this as the "theory of quantum ulimitedusageability"".

I believe I've been generous to PE by assigning 40 days use plus 7 days of reciprocity for a total of 47 days. This is more than any other DC membership except the Bellehavens Explorer membership which is 60 days. I'd bet that most PE members use many less days which would actually drive their CPN higher.

vineyarder said:
Also, your figures for some of the clubs seems to be off; for example:?

Hey now! Whoa! What the...! I'm hurt. Hate the play, not the playa!!

vineyarder said:
HCC trial membership; $20K deposit @ 5% = $1000 opportunity cost, plus $1750 dues, = $2750 total cost, divided by 7 nights = $393 per night, but spreadsheet says $430; perhaps your spreadsheet had the deposit as 80% refundable rather than 100% refundable?

Same with PE Premiere Preview & PE Platinum Preview; they also seem to be higher on the spreadsheet than in actuality, maybe the same reason?

Nope. I have the data correct and as you state here. However, you have forgotten your economics 101 and the magic of A.P.R. The 5% pure opportunity cost is exponential so the total opportunity is higher than what you state. Here's the abridged data on the HCC Trial membership hot from the Monk's scrolls:

HCC Trial
Initial Fee: $20,000
Annual Dues: $1,750
Nightly Fees: $0
Refundable Portion: 100%
Nights: 7
Average bdrms: 3
Average home: $850,000

Annual Dues/night = $250
Pure Opportunity Cost/night = $180 ($1260/week)
Non Refundable Initial Fee/night = $0
Nightly Fee = $0
C.P.N = $430
C.P.N. / $1Mil Home = $506
C.P.N. / Bdrm = $143

Ditto with the PE Preview programs; data is correct.

Finally, any and all errors and/or complaints on the CPN methodology should be directed at the scribing monks who tend to imbibe during data entry.

And for the record ... I'm still with wife #1 after 20 years. (Just in case my wife should read the part about wives #3 and #4)

NeilGoBlue · Oct 19, 2007

travelguy said:
So much for basking in the warm glow of DC CPN information. Somehow I knew there would be suggestions and questions on the TravelGuy methodology.

I'm all for assigning a value to the "Equity" DCs, just don't know how to do it in a way that will be universally accepted by all mankind. Future predictions on property appreciation are hard to predict, let alone this type of luxury vacation property.

Your appreciation factor of 1 - 3 percent per year seems quite reasonable. I know some published appreciation percentages during the short history of DCs are much higher but may be very hard to sustain over a 10 year period. I'm also not quite clear on how much of the actual market appreciation filters down to the member deposit.

Let's see if we can get a consensus on this before I go back to the cave and revamp the spreadsheets. I'd suggest a factor at 50% of the 5% A.P.R. opportunity cost to the refundable portion of the membership deposit. This makes the equity appreciation factor at 2.5% A.P.R.. This allows both numbers to be conservative and equity would be adjusted upward as the investment return factor is adjusted upward.

I'd like to get thoughts from the board on this remembering to keep-it-simple.

I personally would be very conservative. I'd use a 2-3% yearly appreciation. For Bellehavens' that would be 90% of 2-3% and I think for Crecsendo it would be 60% of 2-3%.

PerryM · Oct 19, 2007

Great Job!!!

Travelguy,

Fantastic work – thanks a bunch!

Now let’s use those numbers and compare them to VRBO:

Park City, UT:

Also at http://www.summitpacificinc.com/grand-summit-resort.html
(4 Diamond resort next to main gondola at The Canyons)

At The Canyons, Park City, UT:
A Premium week goes for $650/nite[/URL]
Penthouse 2BR during Christmas week is $730 - $1,211/nite

Take Wailea Maui -

Here’s a great Ekahi Village 2BR
Christmas and New Years week is $470/nite

I can go on and on…………

Travelguy’s table just convinces me that I can get the same 4 diamond accommodations for about the same price and I don’t need to cough up $200k - $500k and hope the DC is around 10 years from now.

Me, I'm still a renter.

vineyarder · Oct 19, 2007

I'm all for assigning a value to the "Equity" DCs, just don't know how to do it in a way that will be universally accepted by all mankind. Future predictions on property appreciation are hard to predict, let alone this type of luxury vacation property.

Your appreciation factor of 1 - 3 percent per year seems quite reasonable. I know some published appreciation percentages during the short history of DCs are much higher but may be very hard to sustain over a 10 year period. I'm also not quite clear on how much of the actual market appreciation filters down to the member deposit.

Let's see if we can get a consensus on this before I go back to the cave and revamp the spreadsheets. I'd suggest a factor at 50% of the 5% A.P.R. opportunity cost to the refundable portion of the membership deposit. This makes the equity appreciation factor at 2.5% A.P.R.. This allows both numbers to be conservative and equity would be adjusted upward as the investment return factor is adjusted upward.

I'd like to get thoughts from the board on this remembering to keep-it-simple.

My personal thoughts are to consider them a different species, and simply have two charts: "equity DCs" and "non-equity DCs". Since most equity DCS (other than the original PE annual dividend program) only 'pay-out' when you quit, I would keep the numbers as they are, but include a footnote that 'appreciation of the deposit may substantially offset the per night cost, if the membership is ever relinquished'.

I believe I've been generous to PE by assigning 40 days use plus 7 days of reciprocity for a total of 47 days. This is more than any other DC membership except the Bellehavens Explorer membership which is 60 days. I'd bet that most PE members use many less days which would actually drive their CPN higher.

I agree that is a reasonable figure to use...

Nope. I have the data correct and as you state here. However, you have forgotten your economics 101 and the magic of A.P.R. The 5% pure opportunity cost is exponential so the total opportunity is higher than what you state.

I stand corrected; I was amiss in assuming simple interest...

I believe I've managed to get not only one, but several "apples-to-apples" comparisons of the value of each DCs membership program.

Fascinating data, and I appreciate all the work you put into it... and while it really tries to compare apples-to-apples, in some ways it seems like it is using data to blur the fact that it is still apples-to-oranges-to-pears-to-peaches... even within the same club. Not that I think that a better methodology exists, but just that there are so many other factors that are not included, even to the degree of individual usage patterns within clubs.

For example, how do you account for plans that allow variable amounts of holiday usage? For example, in PE Platinum, within the next 6 months, I currently have reservations on the books for Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Spring Break. To get that within another club I would have to buy additional holiday reservations (if they were willing to sell me them), at most likely a substantial upgrade cost (for example ER does this at a cost of somewhere in the vicinity of $100K extra deposit and $10K extra per year)... Or how do you account for reservation flexibilty, i.e. the ability to arrive and depart on any day, stay 1 - 14 days, etc. Clearly this cannot be readily assigned a value, as it will be different for each member, so in my opinion, an apples-to-apples comparison isn't possible (or appropriate) since one is an apple and one is an orange; some will prefer apples and some will prefer oranges.

The 'cost per night per $1M home' and 'cost per bedroom' are very interesting, but also will vary considerably... For example, let's say Lusso buys a $3M house in a new resort. Then ER comes along and buys 20 identical houses in the same resort, but since they are buying 20 of them, they pay only $2.5M per house. Dividing nightly cost for Lusso by $3M and nightly cost for ER by $2.5M would make it seem like Lusso has a nicer house, whereas in reality ER just got a better deal... And cost per bedroom would also vary considerably with floor plan; let's say DC A and DC B each buy a 3000 sq ft house in the same development, but DC A has 4 bedrooms, while DC B build out the house to have 8 tiny bedrooms... the cost per bedroom for DC B is now half that of DC A, even though the square footage is the same, and the average member might prefer 4 large bedrooms to 8 tiny ones... So maybe cost per sq. ft. might be a better measure? And how do you account for location and views? DC A might have a 3000 sq ft 4 bdrm house 2 blocks from teh beach, while DC B has a 2500 sq ft 3 bdrm house right on the beach; how do you account for this significant, but nonfinancial, factor? The current methodology gives DC A the clear advantage, but many people would prefer DC B's home... Perhaps using an 'equivalent rental rate per night'?

Another factor that is not included are the 'extra services'; some DCs include daily cleaning, some only midweek, some only between stays... Some DCs include a car, some have on-site local concierges, some have discounted or free golf, etc...

Lastly (finally), even within a specific fruit (DC), there will be significant variation based upon individual preferences and individual usage. For example, lets say Dr. Smith and Dr. Jones both join HCC trial. Dr. Smith uses his week to stay in NYC, so his cost per night is $430, his cost per $1M home is also $430, and his cost per bedroom is also $430. Dr. Jones uses his week to stay at the Breckenridge Mountain Lodge, so his cost per night is also $430, but his cost per $1M is perhaps $172 and his cost per bedroom is $108. Huge differences, based entirely on personal preferences and usage patterns.

Again, great job on the numbers, but I think people need recognize that all DCs are not exactly alike other than cost, and so are not all apples. The costs per night may be helpful as just one component when comparing different varieties of fruit, also taking into account the intangibles (reservation system, availability, destination choices, location at the destination, cleaning, extra services, etc.) that make them very different fruits.

TarheelTraveler · Oct 19, 2007

I appreciate TravelGuy's work on this. I know that I've personally spent days creating spreadsheets trying to analyze the various options. It also takes some guts to put it out there for critique. It's a tough crowd. As Vineyarder pointed out, there are a lot of additional variables out there to consider, but I think that it's almost impossible to quantify most of them.

Being in the equity DC group, I, of course, think you have to assign some value to equity appreciation. I find it hard to believe that over a sustained period of time that you would not have some level of appreciation. History bears that out. The people on this board clearly assign some value to ownership and equity, because it seems like that is a primary complaint you hear on the board about most of the DCs, as compared to straight up ownership, fractional ownership and timeshares. The enthusiasm for the DC product, which I can certainly attest to, sometimes makes people forget that complaint though.

If you assign a value to opportunity cost, it seems like you've got to assign a value to equity appreciation which reduces opportunity cost. I know that you have to resign in order to realize the appreciation, but isn't that the case for the 80-100% membership cost which is recouped and considered in the computations? It seems like footnoting it is not much better than ignoring it. I would instead prefer to assign a very conservative below historical appreciation rate.

When I did my spreadsheets, I determined that any appreciation significantly reduces the per night costs, and if you chalk up numbers in the 8%-10% range, you actually see negative per night costs.

With respect to Crescendo, I would multiply the appreciation by 60%, and personally, I think that 3% is a very fair conservative 10 year number. If you look at actual historical appreciation for coastal, urban and ski properties, I suspect it would be much higher, because of the limited supply compared to overall U.S. and international real estate market. With Bellehavens, my understanding (NeilGoBlue - correct me if I'm wrong) from speaking with them and doing my numbers is that there is essentially a 30% profit taken off the top going to the development company before the property is placed in the member owned entity, so when I ran my numbers, I used a 70% member appreciation cut. The way I looked at it was Crescendo's management cut was on the back end, and Bellehavens was on the front end.

TarheelTraveler · Oct 19, 2007

One more thing. I really like the analysis based on cost per $1M home. When doing my spreadsheets, I had not thought of that angle. It's a very good way to compare apples to oranges and more appropriate in my view than a cost per bedroom. A Ritz-Carlton room is not the same as a Hampton Inn room. However, the ballpark market costs of the homes in the various clubs do inherently factor in spec. levels, amenities of the home and neighborhood, location, etc. From my perspective, it tends to show what I've always suspected, HCC is still a very good (but not ridiculous) value, Quintess gives you a lot of bang for the buck (bigger, more expesive houses at ER or less prices), and that ER and UR are potentially more expensive.

Steamboat Bill · Oct 19, 2007

PerryM said:
Me, I'm still a renter.

That is funny as this table confirms to me (again) that I made a smart decision (for my particular travel needs) to join HCC.

I save 50% or more per night when I stay at a HCC property vs renting.

I also HATE the VRBO website....it stinks!

I figure in 2-3 years, I am at the break even point (assuming I get $0) in return from my initial investment in joining HCC.

I also think there is real value in BH if they have 5% appreciation of your deposit. This, in essence, negates the lost opportunity costs associated with joining a DC. Thus, in my mind, someone joining BH should probably only consider their annual dues only.

PerryM · Oct 19, 2007

Steamboat Bill said:
That is funny as this table confirms to me (again) that I made a smart decision (for my particular travel needs) to join HCC.

I save 50% or more per night when I stay at a HCC property vs renting.

I also HATE the VRBO website....it stinks!

I figure in 2-3 years, I am at the break even point (assuming I get $0) in return from my initial investment in joining HCC.

I also think there is real value in BH if they have 5% appreciation of your deposit. This, in essence, negates the lost opportunity costs associated with joining a DC. Thus, in my mind, someone joining BH should probably only consider their annual dues only.

Every time I buy something I can almost guarantee you that something even better comes along shortly thereafter and would have been an even better use of my money.

I just find timeshares to be a great leverage of our money. Someday I have no doubt that a DC will come along that we will buy into. Not the ones wanting me to give them a personal loan of $200k - $500k but something that I deem as a "Throw away investment" - I probably can get great usage out of it before all hell breaks loose.

To me, HCC is just too expensive and outside of my "Throw away" threshold.

Maybe they'll start a HCC II and start it at $25k with 80% of the CURRENT membership fee when you leave - that I'd snap at instantly.

NeilGoBlue · Oct 19, 2007

TarheelTraveler said:
With respect to Crescendo, I would multiply the appreciation by 60%, and personally, I think that 3% is a very fair conservative 10 year number. If you look at actual historical appreciation for coastal, urban and ski properties, I suspect it would be much higher, because of the limited supply compared to overall U.S. and international real estate market. With Bellehavens, my understanding (NeilGoBlue - correct me if I'm wrong) from speaking with them and doing my numbers is that there is essentially a 30% profit taken off the top going to the development company before the property is placed in the member owned entity, so when I ran my numbers, I used a 70% member appreciation cut. The way I looked at it was Crescendo's management cut was on the back end, and Bellehavens was on the front end.

Tarheel,

You are correct, I wasn't sure the best way to factor that in, but 70% of the appreciation is probably the best way..

Steamboat Bill · Oct 19, 2007

PerryM said:
Maybe they'll start a HCC II and start it at $25k with 80% of the CURRENT membership fee when you leave - that I'd snap at instantly.

Technically that sounds like the "new" 7 night companion plan to me.

http://www.highcountryclub.com/about/News/20071019.asp

Kagehitokiri · Oct 19, 2007

PerryM said:
Me, I'm still a renter.

some DCs have properties that CANNOT be rented.

also, your points are basically why im more interested in higher end clubs with higher end homes, AND unlimited use. so id be getting a great nightly discount, plus could really use the hell out of it when i have the flexibility.

i remember you liked the onekeyworld model, but id also be curious to hear your take on the WPR model, where you pay X down, and no annual fees, get X weeks per year, then after the 10 year maturity comes around, you get paid back your deposit plus interest. (WPR's estimates work out to ~6% APY IIRC)

travelguy said:
I believe that the use of PE properties is unlimited but the number of days booked at any point in time IS limited. Therefore, the number of "unlimited" days that can realistically be used is in inverse proportion to the number of long-term reservations that a member has made.

ciel for example allows basically unlimited use, and up to 7 or 9 reservations (1-week) at one time, depending on plan.

Steamboat Bill said:
Technically that sounds like the "new" 7 night companion plan to me.

but without the equity he wants.

TUGBrian · Oct 19, 2007

how big is the xls file?

send it to me and ill get it up for you if I can.

Steamboat Bill · Oct 19, 2007

TUG Improvements! said:
how big is the xls file?

send it to me and ill get it up for you if I can.

That's what you call "super mod" capabilities!

TarheelTraveler · Oct 19, 2007

Neil - I'm correcting myself. I guess it would really be 60% for Bellehavens as with Crescendo (30% on front end and 10% on the back end). I forgot that it was 90% of current value on back end.

NeilGoBlue · Oct 19, 2007

TarheelTraveler said:
Neil - I'm correcting myself. I guess it would really be 60% for Bellehavens as with Crescendo (30% on front end and 10% on the back end). I forgot that it was 90% of current value on back end.

Technically, that only comes into play if they wind down the club.

Since the appreciation in your deposit 10 years from now is actually a function of the current deposit (90% of current deposit), it might not come into play. Also, management's take is about 15% (about 300K on a 2mm property).

So, I don't know the most accurate way to project the appreciation. But in my heart (and my head) 2-3% net appreciation seems conservative and appropriate.