Looks bad for Cancun - Again

Here's a link to the latest hurricane prediction map for hurricane Dean. Looks like Dean will be knocking on Cancun's door this coming Monday and Tuesday. Glad I'm not headed for the Royal Islander this Saturday. We are scheduled to be there for 2 weeks in mid November. We were there last fall and they were still cleaning up from Wilma. We just got a notice that their insurance cost were to go up 700%, so they are self insuring now. They said it was a safe bet because their damage from Wilma did not even reach their deductable and that cat 4 storm sat over them for 4 days.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stormspotlight.php?year=2007&storm=4

There was a likening of this storm to hurricane Gilbert which did a lot of damage in Cancun. But, as usual the Royals then built withstood the storm with minor damage.

This is so sad. Let's hope for the best for the Yucatan.

Any thoughts from anyone on how they think the Grand Mayan in Playa del Carmen will withstand this storm? We're headed there in 4 weeks so this makes me a bit nervous. Am beginning to think about alternative plans just in case, but what does everyone here think?

JanT said:

Any thoughts from anyone on how they think the Grand Mayan in Playa del Carmen will withstand this storm?

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My personal opinion is that this Dean “The Scream” Hurricane is veering to the north. I’ve been watching it for a few days and on Wednesday it was showing landfall south of Playa del Carmen. Then about twelve hours later landfall was shown as Playa del Carmen. Today, Friday, landfall is shown as Cancun. With three days to go before actual landfall, I am predicting that it will veer still further to the North. Just my guess.

I’m using the National Hurricane Center, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml, as my data source.

I'm guessing the same. There's such a wide range of probable area.

4 weeks out, I personally wouldn't worry too much ... but I'm general I'm not the worry-ing type.

Thanks much. I do tend to be a worrier but was trying not to put too much worry into this situation. Weather is always tremendously variable as you say. I'll take the wait and see approach in terms of vacation. But, I do hope for the Cancun area's sake that the storm skips them entirely or peters out.

Let's hope you're right. The left side of the storm is the weak side (if you can call it weak). Then Dean will focus on water logged Texas and that could be a real nightmare. Guess there is no good way out of this. But these storms can really be unpredictable. Hurricane Charlie in 2004 was a cat 2 heading due north up the west side of Florida. It was predicted to hit Tampa, but as it passed near Sanibel Island it increased to a cat 4, turned 60 degrees right and Punta Gorda (we were in the house) was ground zero for sustained winds of 150 MPH and gusts to 175. Everything in it's path was wrecked and we now have a real appreciation for hurricanes now.

When Wilma (cat 5) hit directly on the Mayan Riviera for more than 24 hours back in October 2005, we went there 4 weeks later and the resort was open. Many rooms had a lot of damage, but they were really glad to have guests in the ones they had. Playa Del Carmen was hit too, but recovered very quickly. I would not worry. These people spend every waking moment after a hurricane getting the resorts back up to operational - that is their only source of income.

Here's a link to the different models that try to predict the path. Look at 2 of them going to New Orleans, UGH.

http://flhurricane.com/clarkmodelanimator.php?year=2007&storm=4

KCI said:

Here's a link to the different models that try to predict the path. Look at 2 of them going to New Orleans, UGH.

http://flhurricane.com/clarkmodelanimator.php?year=2007&storm=4

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Great link "thanks" I took a mental average of those predicted paths and my average put the leading NE edge of the storm right over the Phase II palapa bar, major bummer. Not to trivialize this storm, I'm losing sleep already.

Well, we are in Grand Mayan right now and are heading for Royal Islander tomorrow. We are stuck in Cancun as all the flights out are sold out. So, my questions are: 1) Are people allow to stay in Royal Islander during the storm or were they evacuated? 2) How long was the airport closed after the storm (Wilma)? Thanks.

There was a mandatory evacuation of the hotel zone during Wilma. All the Royals guests were sent to shelters. The Royals site is giving updates on Dean. The site also identifies the 5 shelters that have been arranged for Royals guests. I still don't understand why the Royals guests need to be evacuated. The Royals facilities stood up much better than most of the shelters during Wilma. www.royalresorts.com

blr666 said:

1) Are people allow to stay in Royal Islander during the storm or were they evacuated? 2) How long was the airport closed after the storm (Wilma)? Thanks.

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Wilma Recap:

1. People were not allowed to stay at the resorts. They were evacuated to schools in town. Wilma stayed over Cancun for several days, which put a strain on the sleeping and rest room facilities at the shelters. But, there were some people who hid out and stayed on at the resorts. The stories vary about the amounts of food and water that they had on hand. VCI suffered the least amount of damage and the Royals guests were brought there from the evacuation shelters until they could get a flight out. They were housed and feed by the Royals at no charge.

2. The airport was shutdown to commercial traffic for about 5 days. The first commercial flights were outbound only. We flew in on the sixth day on the second inbound (Delta) commercial flight. The airport was a shamble with ceiling tile and windows out and a lot of people still trying to leave Cancun. The trip from the airport to VCI was awesome. We never saw so many downed trees, light poles, etc. Everyone that was coming into the Royals was put up at VCI as that was the only resort open. VCI looked the same as ever, except there were no leaves on the trees. There were a grand total of 4 room occupied that week. One of the occupants was John P., a board member at the Royal Mayan. We became very good friends over the next weeks. John was there during the hurricane and is the source of my information. Our stay was for three weeks and the most memorable ever!

on the royal resorts home page there's a hurricane update icon to click ... in part ...

"Last update: 17-Aug-2007


The team in charge of contingency planning is monitoring the storm 24 hours a day. Measures have been taken to ensure the safety of guests and to make them as comfortable as possible.

While management policy will always be to stay at the Royal Resorts, the Mexican authorities may issue a mandatory evacuation order for the Hotel Zone depending on the category and strength of the storm. In this unlikely event, Royal Resorts has five hurricane shelters in downtown Cancún which have been equipped with emergency supplies and sleeping pads to accommodate our guests.

We encourage you to continue monitoring the storm on this website."


I know that the one hurricane that fell during my week at the RC (not Wilma) there was not a mandatory evacuation and all was back to normal 24 hours later. They did move us out of our villa since we are beach front.

Here's an actual view of Dean in motion. Amazing eye. The smaller the eye the stronger the storm they say. You'll be able to watch it cross Jamaica and Quintana Roo if in fact it does so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Barring a major change in the models it seems almost certain that the storm will hit Quintana Roo now but the eye may track to the south and west of Cancun.

If any body from the Royal Resorts is reading this: Do not water the grass for the next week!

To TUG members or anybody else reading this: If you brought a little bottle of Cancun sand home, please return it on your next visit!

jschmidt said:

To TUG members or anybody else reading this: If you brought a little bottle of Cancun sand home, please return it on your next visit!

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Maybe Dean will bring back Cancun's original soft sand instead of that sharp sea-shell stuff that was pumped in after Wilma:whoopie: !

Cozumel took a hard hit with Wilma, and now Dean is going to whack Coz hard. And hurricane season is just now getting into full swing.

Please consider donating to the Cruz Roja, the independent (not government-funded) Red Cross on Cozumel island in the Yucatan. USA efforts are coordinated effectively via the volunteer efforts of Deb Bollag, a friend of mine in NY. She's also a diver and frequent visitor to Cozumel and has developed such a love for the people there. Please consider helping this worthy cause at this time of great need.

http://www.cruzrojacozumel.org/friendsoverview.html

Check the web cams at the Royals. It looks like a lot of people were scared off by the early projected path of Hurricane Dean.

http://www.royalresorts.com/webcam.php

When Wilma hit, I found a great site with lots of updates and a good forum. It is www.cancuntravelonline.com Check the Cancun forum. "scubakevin" lives down there says that it is currently on target for Punta Allen which is south of Tulum.

He has photos showing how the resorts and restaurants are boarding up and getting ready.

Yikes!!!

This latest satellite image of Dean illustrates just how ***huge*** this storm really is!! It's larger than the entire Yucatan peninsula itself, and predictions are that it is to even strengthen and enlarge prior to landfall.

Even though the latest predictions are landfall in Quintana Roo just south of Tulum, there is no way the effects won't be felt in Cancun. In fact,the first feeder band should start impacting Cancun within the next couple of hours.

Our hearts and prayers go out to all in Cancun - stay safe! And let us know how you are doing, if and whenever possible.

right now they are only expecting tropical storm force winds, etc in Cancun. We've been in our villa many a time during tropical storms. It's the risk of traveling during the "season."

look at www.royalresorts.com

for updates. There are webcam shots from 8:50 Am Tuesday.