Cancelled Flights - More in AM or PM? - Timeshare Users Group Online Community Forums

Betty · November 5, 2006, 05:41 PM

Does anyone know if airlines are more likely to cancel flights that leave very early in the morning (say 6:00 AM) or later in the day? We've been thinking of booking an early Delta flight, but after reading about their habit of cancelling flights, I'm not sure if we should take a chance.

Thanks,
Betty

Dave M · November 5, 2006, 08:58 PM

Delta's not alone in canceling flights. All airlines do it. Mechanical issues, weather, lack of available crew, etc. There are no Department of Transportation statistics indicating Delta is worse than most other major U.S. carriers.

Still, if you are worried, take an early flight. Since many planes have been sitting on the ground overnight, it's likely there will be fewer issues with your flight than if you take a flight later in the day.

Also schedule an early morning flight if you need to make a connection. The statistics are clear that early morning flights are much more likely to be on time (so that you can make your connecting flight), since it's probably the first flight of the day for that plane. A later flight might have stopped in several cities, increasing the chances for a weather delay or some other types of delay - or a cancellation - that affects that plane for the rest of the day.

camachinist · November 6, 2006, 02:22 AM

Echo Dave's advice, especially for connection flights to trans- and intercontental flights.

Since we nearly always connect from a smaller local airport, my wife's client, who was a reservationist for UA for 30 years, taught us a long time ago to book the first flight out of our local, even if it meant a couple hour layover at the connection point. Later in the day, scheduling and weather issues can creep in, especially connecting through SFO (San Franscisco) due to weather/traffic issues there.

So, now, we either fly first flight out, or plan on the red-eye, leaving ourselves plenty of connection time for problems. I'll be doing exactly this out of MOD tomorrow on the first of my status runs. Knowing that the MOD-LAX flight leaves an hour after MOD-SFO, I routed MOD-SFO-LAX-IAD (redeye), so, if SFO goes wx, I'll have them route me via LAX and possibly give up 500 EQM's, but still get the trip done. If the IAD connection was at SFO, they might have resisted re-routing through LAX and I would have had to insist

Anyway, just wanted to illustrate how the strategy process works. One absolutely does not have to think all this stuff through, but then, once one gets stranded at an airport somewhere, one has lots of time to ponder that decision

Pat

Cathyb · November 7, 2006, 09:39 AM

For us to avoid worrying about missing a Delta connection,

we made our Santa Ana/Atlanta flight one day, spending night in Atlanta then catching the early flight out of Atlanta the next morning. We felt 42 min. to hope to connect in the Atlanta airport was just wishful thinking.
If you can't beat them, join them

camachinist · November 7, 2006, 10:04 AM

I've recently had a tour of SkyTeam hubs (DTW,MSP,CVG,ATL) and have found they run a pretty tight ship.

On our last trip through ATL the connection gates were only a 10 minute walk. More recently, when arriving/departing ATL, I was on UA, departing out of the T gates, and my wife flew DL out of the E gates down the concourse. I went through T gate security, found out what gate she was at, hopped on the train and was talking to her in maybe 7 minutes. The whole process was very efficient, , but it was during what I would consider off-peak (~3pm departure). Saw her off, hopped back on the train, and was in the RCC at the UA gates 10 minutes later.

The only reason I would be leary about a short connection at ATL would be on-time performance, not the efficiency of the airport. We flew a real milk run on DL/NW a couple weeks ago (SFO-CVG-DTW-HPN and return) and they were spot on time on all segments, even with some wx in CVG and DTW. I was impressed

We're flying them again to YOW (Ottawa, CA) in a few weeks, on Thanksgiving day, so I'll compare then.

IIRC, the only flight I've ever had cancelled has been on DL (out of LGA) and we were re-booked over the phone at the airport, losing about 2 hours. LGA was a zoo but they got everyone out. For 125.00 r/t for a transcon, I wasn't about to complain

Pat

November 5, 2006, 05:41 PM	#1
Betty TUG Member BBS Reg. Date: Jun 6, 05 Posts: 153	Cancelled Flights - More in AM or PM? Does anyone know if airlines are more likely to cancel flights that leave very early in the morning (say 6:00 AM) or later in the day? We've been thinking of booking an early Delta flight, but after reading about their habit of cancelling flights, I'm not sure if we should take a chance. Thanks, Betty

November 7, 2006, 09:39 AM	#4
Cathyb TUG Member BBS Reg. Date: Jun 6, 05 Location: Carlsbad, CA Posts: 3,520 Resorts: Marriott DSV I & Newport Coast; Westin Mission Hills; The Whaler/Maui July 4; Pono Kai/Kauai /Wk 52; Worldmark; Carlsbad	For us to avoid worrying about missing a Delta connection, we made our Santa Ana/Atlanta flight one day, spending night in Atlanta then catching the early flight out of Atlanta the next morning. We felt 42 min. to hope to connect in the Atlanta airport was just wishful thinking. If you can't beat them, join them __________________ TUG member since it started and proud of it!

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November 5, 2006, 08:58 PM	#2
Dave M Moderator TUG Lifetime Member BBS Reg. Date: Jun 16, 04 Location: Sun City Hilton Head, SC Posts: 11,351	Delta's not alone in canceling flights. All airlines do it. Mechanical issues, weather, lack of available crew, etc. There are no Department of Transportation statistics indicating Delta is worse than most other major U.S. carriers. Still, if you are worried, take an early flight. Since many planes have been sitting on the ground overnight, it's likely there will be fewer issues with your flight than if you take a flight later in the day. Also schedule an early morning flight if you need to make a connection. The statistics are clear that early morning flights are much more likely to be on time (so that you can make your connecting flight), since it's probably the first flight of the day for that plane. A later flight might have stopped in several cities, increasing the chances for a weather delay or some other types of delay - or a cancellation - that affects that plane for the rest of the day.

November 6, 2006, 02:22 AM	#3
camachinist TUG Member BBS Reg. Date: Jun 6, 05 Location: Central California Posts: 2,305	Echo Dave's advice, especially for connection flights to trans- and intercontental flights. Since we nearly always connect from a smaller local airport, my wife's client, who was a reservationist for UA for 30 years, taught us a long time ago to book the first flight out of our local, even if it meant a couple hour layover at the connection point. Later in the day, scheduling and weather issues can creep in, especially connecting through SFO (San Franscisco) due to weather/traffic issues there. So, now, we either fly first flight out, or plan on the red-eye, leaving ourselves plenty of connection time for problems. I'll be doing exactly this out of MOD tomorrow on the first of my status runs. Knowing that the MOD-LAX flight leaves an hour after MOD-SFO, I routed MOD-SFO-LAX-IAD (redeye), so, if SFO goes wx, I'll have them route me via LAX and possibly give up 500 EQM's, but still get the trip done. If the IAD connection was at SFO, they might have resisted re-routing through LAX and I would have had to insist Anyway, just wanted to illustrate how the strategy process works. One absolutely does not have to think all this stuff through, but then, once one gets stranded at an airport somewhere, one has lots of time to ponder that decision Pat

November 7, 2006, 10:04 AM	#5
camachinist TUG Member BBS Reg. Date: Jun 6, 05 Location: Central California Posts: 2,305	I've recently had a tour of SkyTeam hubs (DTW,MSP,CVG,ATL) and have found they run a pretty tight ship. On our last trip through ATL the connection gates were only a 10 minute walk. More recently, when arriving/departing ATL, I was on UA, departing out of the T gates, and my wife flew DL out of the E gates down the concourse. I went through T gate security, found out what gate she was at, hopped on the train and was talking to her in maybe 7 minutes. The whole process was very efficient, , but it was during what I would consider off-peak (~3pm departure). Saw her off, hopped back on the train, and was in the RCC at the UA gates 10 minutes later. The only reason I would be leary about a short connection at ATL would be on-time performance, not the efficiency of the airport. We flew a real milk run on DL/NW a couple weeks ago (SFO-CVG-DTW-HPN and return) and they were spot on time on all segments, even with some wx in CVG and DTW. I was impressed We're flying them again to YOW (Ottawa, CA) in a few weeks, on Thanksgiving day, so I'll compare then. IIRC, the only flight I've ever had cancelled has been on DL (out of LGA) and we were re-booked over the phone at the airport, losing about 2 hours. LGA was a zoo but they got everyone out. For 125.00 r/t for a transcon, I wasn't about to complain Pat