I understand Dean’s analysis and agree. I think DVC is a premium product. Dean compared the most cost effective DVC product (SSR), although at a pretty high number of points. If you compare Grand Floridian lake view or Animal Kingdom savannah view (my favorite DVC resorts and view categories) to an Orlando Marriott, especially a legacy Marriott week, the delta woud be even greater. Both DVC and MVC (points) make no sense from a pure financial perspective.
DVC is likely to only be with me for 2-5 years max since it does not really fit my vacation patterns. I bought it for family members, not for myself. I am finding DVC to be a lot of fun so I decided not to sell right away. Most people who buy DVC enjoy it for emotional and convenience reasons that are unquantifiable. Where else (outside of a safari) can you wake up and sit on your balcony and watch all the animals while sipping tea in the morning. Disney is an experience in and of itself that you do not get staying offsite. It will almost always be more cost effective to stay offsite at Vistana or Marriott or elsewhere.
In my case, I would do the analysis differently and compare timeshares to my previous vacations. I used to spend at least double the average MF for any of the places I go now. So based on my usage patterns, I am likely saving in the 6 figures over 20 years no matter what timeshares I own. However, vacationers like me do not to a NPV analysis on vacation spending.
From reading many of the DVC posts, it appears there are not many Tuggers who own DVC. Many of the comments and questions in the various DVC threads seem to be from non-owners. It is very easy to calculate the cost per week in various room types with the chart I posted several times. But we keep getting the same questions about cost.