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Is 2019 the 'Year of the Timeshare'? [Marriott/Vistana/Hyatt in the DC speculation]

SueDonJ

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With a few exceptions I always felt that the Facebook Marriott groups were somewhat like high school, with a few folks having a clue while most are just typing to see their words and express their narrow understanding as gospel, even if well intentioned....while TUG was college level, with thoughtful, polite comments from folks that take time to listen for awhile and integrate with the group before they share their thoughts, and hopefully add value.

This thread almost got back to being valuable, but seems like the freshmen class keeps dragging everyone back down. Did this happen back in 2010?
YES!

Granted, it was confusing for everyone because Marriott didn't drop anything but the actual legal documents at the outset and it took the combined knowledge of many long-time owners/TUGgers to parse through and come to an agreement of what most made sense.

But I'll admit and I'm sure many others will as well that it was absolutely infuriating to have to repeatedly push back against aspects that were completely misunderstood by people who appeared to only be looking for things that would justify their pre-conceived ideas. And I'm not talking about "misunderstood" based on opinions - some of the things that repeatedly came up as justification for hating the system simply couldn't and wouldn't pass the smell test based on the legal documents. I fear that if the same ridiculous pushback happens with whatever Marriott rolls out for Vistana/Hyatt, Marriott TUGgers will simply walk away from the discussions when they lose patience. Why would we continue, after all, when we've already been through it?
 

controller1

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I realize there are "Marriott TUGgers" and Vistana TUGgers but I also believe when those terms are used it further punctuates we vs. them. I wish we could all come together and be receptive to learning and not sounding accusatory.
 

Ken555

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Rented points do have other restrictions though. You can't bank them or move them out of the year they are for. So if you have to cancel your stay you could be SOL. Renting can be a pain sometimes, you have to go out and find a renter, trust enough to hand over the dough and hope they transfer the points. While the risk is low, there is the possibility of scams. VPE has some protections against that, but nothing is foolproof.

Okay, this seems to indicate that Marriott is not involved in the process of renting points.

Also consider that some people have weeks where their blended MF is in the $0.30-$0.40 pp range. Yours could be too. So renting at $0.70 is a pretty big price to pay if you need a lot of points.

Yes, of course. For myself, I track costs based on my per night cost each year per week. I use my WKV 148k StarOptions for internal trades typically in studio and 1-bed units, and this year am redeeming for 25 nights (which includes 11 nights in Kauai), so my cost is just under $73 per night (after the required housekeeping fees, which are assessed for all but the first two stays). Using 2019 average nightly cost of $73 (after HK) that would be ~850 Marriott points for a week. So... can I get a week in a 1-bed in the Marriott network most weeks of the year? I reviewed the MVC points PDF and it seems there are some undesirable locations over Dec and Jan (Hilton Head, etc) for <1000 points. I didn't review every resort cost but generally I doubt I would be able to keep my ~$73/night cost when renting points. And, there's no way I will stay at a Marriott studio since that's really just a hotel room (no washer/dryer, no kitchen (perhaps a microwave and dorm refrigerator), very small, and nothing like VSNs studios or small 1-bed units). With this in mind, I tend to doubt I would rent points other than when needed in exceptional situations.

Also, many of these less costly Marriott resorts seem to be available via II. Now that it's really one company I'm curious to see how they approach inventory availability via II vs Marriott vs whatever else they offer. My suspicion is that they will promote the network as the premiere method to obtain weeks but that they will also have some weeks available via II for those who simply won't pay more. This way Marriott gets all the money...
 

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This is where they have a problem with Vistana. Places like Westin Kierland Villas had a very high sales price as compared to Marriott resorts in the area. I think WKV Plat+ sold for close to $60K. The same is true for Lagunamar. That is much higher than Marriott sold Canyon Villas for. Vistana could command those higher prices because of how they setup their StarOption chart. A WKV Plat+ week could easily book in to a Hawaii week. So they were selling Hawaii in Scottsdale. Can they really give WKV week owners 5,000-6,000 DC points for their weeks when they would perhaps only charge 4,000 for the highest season week there? Not really because it would create a huge imbalance. People would convert to DC points and use those to book back in to WKV and have plenty of points leftover. Or they would book longer stays at WKV and people would effectively be locked out of booking back in because demand would be much higher than supply.
Dioxide makes a great point here. WKV values continue to be inflated by the fact that it is (1) mandatory, and (2) plat plus season commands equal trade-in value to a week in Hawaii. I will make the argument that I think it is has much nicer units and facilities than Canyon Villas IMHO as I have stayed at both, but not sure it would deserve a 25%-50% premium based on the numbers Dioxide shows.

Maybe that is why I foresee a program layered on top of the existing DC and VSN programs. Marriott then collects a fee (either per transaction and/or one-time per unit enrollment and/or skim off of the conversion) for "affiliate access" to the other program(s). Well, maybe that is my hope anyway since I own at WKV.

Time will tell I guess.

-ryan
 

Ken555

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Point rental costs are only slightly more than the MF cost of TRUST points. Trust Points MF is $0.58 and point rentals are listed in the $0.60 - $0.70 range.

The maintenance fees for enrolled weeks can be very different. The per point cost for an enrolled week depends on the MF of the week and how many points it yields. Here are some examples from toward the extremes, but there are many data points between these two edge examples:

Grande Ocean, HHI, 2BR OF Platinum - MF of $1491 for 5075 points = $0.29
Maui Ocean Club 2BR OF Platinum - MF of $2296 for 6450 points = $0.37
Desert Springs Villas 2BR Blue - MF of $1627 for 1875 points = $0.87
Grande Ocean, HHI, 2BR OS Bronze - MF of $1491 for 775 points = $1.92

Obviously with GO Platinum and Maui, the high point allocation helps lower the cost per point, whereas with the Bronze Hilton Head Grande Ocean and Desert Springs examplea, its a Bronze (winter) week or Blue week worth few points, but it has the same maintenance fee as a peak season week, thus a high cost per point.

Okay, so the baseline reference that points are at MF cost is referring to the cost of trust points. Gotcha.

Based on these examples, it does seem foolish for me (I'm only talking about myself now...) to rent on the market, other than in exceptional situations. If I want to travel more then I would purchase another week with a low cost per point benefit.

As for the difference in season value, we have the same exact issue with VSN and always have. This is why I bought a WKV Platinum Plus week and not a Bronze week.
 

SueDonJ

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I realize there are "Marriott TUGgers" and Vistana TUGgers but I also believe when those terms are used it further punctuates we vs. them. I wish we could all come together and be receptive to learning and not sounding accusatory.

I've always used the term "Marriott TUGgers" to talk about the longtime regulars on the TUG Marriott forum who've developed a reputation for being, as the saying goes, smarter than the average bear. In my mind there are also "Vistana TUGgers" and "Wyndham TUGgers" and "Resale TUGgers" and "Rental TUGgers" etc. Absolutely nothing derogatory is intended, and I apologize for coming across that way.
 

SueDonJ

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Okay, this seems to indicate that Marriott is not involved in the process of renting points. ...

Right. The governing docs explicitly allow Points transfers between member accounts, but MVW doesn't offer Points on a rental basis. It would be good if they did, even if it was on as limited a basis as Disney Vacation Club allows its members (I believe only a small amount can be rented each year, and they must correlate immediately to a reservation for which the member doesn't have other Points s/he can use?)
 

bazzap

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I've always used the term "Marriott TUGgers" to talk about the longtime regulars on the TUG Marriott forum who've developed a reputation for being, as the saying goes, smarter than the average bear. In my mind there are also "Vistana TUGgers" and "Wyndham TUGgers" and "Resale TUGgers" and "Rental TUGgers" etc. Absolutely nothing derogatory is intended, and I apologize for coming across that way.
For me, this is an issue I hadn’t even considered before?
I do dip into other Forums, although this is definitely the one I primarily use.
I have only ever thought about and referenced “TUGgers”, so the idea of “XXXXX TUGgers” has never even crossed my mind.
 

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Dioxide makes a great point here. WKV values continue to be inflated by the fact that it is (1) mandatory, and (2) plat plus season commands equal trade-in value to a week in Hawaii. I will make the argument that I think it is has much nicer units and facilities than Canyon Villas IMHO as I have stayed at both, but not sure it would deserve a 25%-50% premium based on the numbers Dioxide shows.

Maybe that is why I foresee a program layered on top of the existing DC and VSN programs. Marriott then collects a fee (either per transaction and/or one-time per unit enrollment and/or skim off of the conversion) for "affiliate access" to the other program(s). Well, maybe that is my hope anyway since I own at WKV.

Time will tell I guess.

-ryan

I think a one Time enrollment per week/VOI for something like “affiliate access” + a per transaction booking could be a possibility. They could Assign a value similar to DC points to the VOI you own in Vistana just to keep it all uniform. If you drop you DC points in, you’ll only see VSN resorts and vice versa. OR VSN owners have to enroll their VOI’s into the DC program for a larger fee. It will be fun to see how this all turns out in the end.
 

vacationtime1

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This is where they have a problem with Vistana. Places like Westin Kierland Villas had a very high sales price as compared to Marriott resorts in the area. I think WKV Plat+ sold for close to $60K. The same is true for Lagunamar. That is much higher than Marriott sold Canyon Villas for. Vistana could command those higher prices because of how they setup their StarOption chart. A WKV Plat+ week could easily book in to a Hawaii week. So they were selling Hawaii in Scottsdale. Can they really give WKV week owners 5,000-6,000 DC points for their weeks when they would perhaps only charge 4,000 for the highest season week there? Not really because it would create a huge imbalance. People would convert to DC points and use those to book back in to WKV and have plenty of points leftover. Or they would book longer stays at WKV and people would effectively be locked out of booking back in because demand would be much higher than supply.

It will be intersting to see how they allocate these points and the vallues they assign to them along with how much they charge to book weeks at some of these properties.

A two bedroom WKV rents for ~$3,700 during prime season (March). So if they don't offer approx 6000 DC points (6000 DC points @ $0.60 = $3,600) , owners will find it more profitable to rent their weeks rather than to elect points and MVC will have no inventory.

Also, a DC cost of less than about 6000 DC points to reserve the unit would permit one to rent the unit for far less than its rental value by renting DC points @ ~ $0.60 (if the price were 4000 DC points, one could rent enough points for $2,400).
 

JIMinNC

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You are certainly not the first to point this out. It does make you scratch your head. Only potential issue with renting the points as your sole strategy is if MVC, at some point, puts restrictions on point transfers like some other systems have. But that bridge can be crossed when/if it presents itself. I am surprised the point renters don’t band together and drive the rental price up a bit, but so far, it has yet to happen.

As I'm sure you know, collusion to set prices is illegal, so I would hope they would not do this. It's too small of a business to attract antitrust attention, but it would harm those of us who want to rent points. Hopefully there will also be enough small renters willing to cut prices that the mega-renters can't set the market price.
 

JIMinNC

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Aspects of the II platform have been a back-channel component of the DC since its inception, with Marriott utilizing II systems and employees. I'd need to see official documentation in order to believe that eventually all of us under the MVW umbrella are working within the well-established II points system.

You may have missed the few posts to follow these you have quoted in posts #460 and 470 that uncovered that CPNY's post that started "This just in...", plus the one you quoted in 470 was a spoof of the original post in this thread. As is often the term used now, it's just fake news designed as a humorous spoof.
 

SueDonJ

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You may have missed the few posts to follow these you have quoted in posts #460 and 470 that uncovered that CPNY's post that started "This just in..." was a spoof of the original post in this thread. As is often the term used now, it's just fake news designed as a humorous spoof.

GGGGGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. Did I really just waste a ridiculous amount of time responding to something FAKE?!
 

JIMinNC

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GGGGGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. Did I really just waste a ridiculous amount of time responding to something FAKE?!

Read posts 430-435
 

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A two bedroom WKV rents for ~$3,700 during prime season (March). So if they don't offer approx 6000 DC points (6000 DC points @ $0.60 = $3,600) , owners will find it more profitable to rent their weeks rather than to elect points and MVC will have no inventory.

Also, a DC cost of less than about 6000 DC points to reserve the unit would permit one to rent the unit for far less than its rental value by renting DC points @ ~ $0.60 (if the price were 4000 DC points, one could rent enough points for $2,400).
But that is one month out of the year. I own here, and rent out during that season -- I assure you that other weeks outside of prime spring training (3-4 weeks at best) do not rent for close to $3700. Even weeks 51 and 52 do not regularly command that price. (and I'll conjecture that Canyon Villas also rents for a premium during those same 3-4 weeks)

So yes, owners who nab those weeks may be able to rent, but there is not enough demand to satisfy everyone who wants to rent, and not everyone who owns wants to go through the hassle of renting. While I see your argument, using a $3700 rental price is a bit flawed as there are only 3-4 weeks of inventory that will generate that type of income. That would be like comparing Harborside which rents for a premium in weeks 51 and 52 and comparing it to other weeks in the platinum plus season.

That being said, I stand by my comment that WKV is much nicer than Canyon Villas (that pool is a zoo and over capacity when I stayed during the summer) and that it should command a premium over it -- how much is the question.

-ryan
 

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Read posts 430-435

In case you can't hear me, I'm cursing loudly. But you already know that. ;)

@CPNY, this kind of nonsense is exactly what I was talking about when I said that people who have been through this already could be driven away from the discussion. As a participant, I'm asking you to not waste any of our time and goodwill again. As a TUG moderator, I'm telling you that next time will be the last time.
 

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I can see that Canyon Villas on Redweek rents for about $2400-$2700ish during those same weeks. So maybe a 25% to 50% is not far off per Dioxide's post.

-ryan
 

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GGGGGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. Did I really just waste a ridiculous amount of time responding to something FAKE?!



Yes, you did spend a lot of time and effort in responding to a fake post and I for one am sorry that you had to do that.

Most of us (if not all of us) really appreciate the time and effort that you put in as a moderator. I know it is endless, thankless job, and one that you are not compensated for.

Please keep up the good work!




.
 

Ken555

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That being said, I stand by my comment that WKV is much nicer than Canyon Villas (that pool is a zoo and over capacity when I stayed during the summer) and that it should command a premium over it -- how much is the question.

I've stayed at both resorts as well, and I completely agree.

Of course, if VSN becomes less usable and we are forced by circumstance to use DP to trade to Maui or elsewhere, then I would obviously want to be able to trade WKV for WKORV at the same rate I am now no matter what point system is used. That's the baseline comparison I care about...will my 148,100 StarOptions get me the same number of nights (as I posted previously) in the future program as I can get now? If not, then the program has become devalued.
 

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I've stayed at both resorts as well, and I completely agree.

Of course, if VSN becomes less usable and we are forced by circumstance to use DP to trade to Maui or elsewhere, then I would obviously want to be able to trade WKV for WKORV at the same rate I am now no matter what point system is used. That's the baseline comparison I care about...will my 148,100 StarOptions get me the same number of nights (as I posted previously) in the future program as I can get now? If not, then the program has become devalued.
Count me in your camp. :clap: Decrease of SOs for non-Hawaii properties (unlikely) or inflation of Hawaii property SO values (possible) would absolutely devalue the program for me.
 
Last edited:

CPNY

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Count me in your camp. :clap: Decrease of SOs for non-Hawaii properties (unlikely) or inflation of Hawaii property SO values would absolutely devalue the program for me.

It wouldn’t shock me if Marriott devalued many resorts.
 

SueDonJ

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Yes, you did spend a lot of time and effort in responding to a fake post and I for one am sorry that you had to do that.

Most of us (if not all of us) really appreciate the time and effort that you put in as a moderator. I know it is endless, thankless job, and one that you are not compensated for.

Please keep up the good work!




.

Thank you. :)
 

JIMinNC

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I've stayed at both resorts as well, and I completely agree.

Of course, if VSN becomes less usable and we are forced by circumstance to use DP to trade to Maui or elsewhere, then I would obviously want to be able to trade WKV for WKORV at the same rate I am now no matter what point system is used. That's the baseline comparison I care about...will my 148,100 StarOptions get me the same number of nights (as I posted previously) in the future program as I can get now? If not, then the program has become devalued.

In my opinion, this is the key challenge Marriott Vacations Worldwide will face in designing a cross-brand exchange system, and may be the single biggest impediment to ever completely abandoning VSN. When the DC was first developed, MVC owners had no pre-existing point system, so the only yardstick they could use to compare was the relative "black box" of the II exchange system. In II, a week exchanged for a week, and it was possible to exchange a lower demand location like Canyon Villas for a high demand place like Maui, but the whole value exchange process was closeted in secrecy and everyone knew exchanging was something of a crapshoot. So, the owner that swapped a shoulder season Canyon Villas for a week on Maui saw what they got as a great deal, but it wasn't "expected".

Contrast that to the situation now faced where they are absorbing another mature points system that set their point values very differently than MVC did for the DC. In VSN, Kierland Villas is equal to Maui, so those owners have a quantifiable measure of value that they have come to expect. They know and expect to have enough points from their WKV to book Maui. So the flatter, more consistent points system used by VSN is going to be hard for MVC to sort out, and may make it impossible to eliminate VSN without angering a huge segment of their owners. I personally don't think they are that dumb.

There is precedent in the DC for valuing one resort in an area differently from others in the same place. Look at these resorts in Orlando for same size and season:

Marriott Royal Palms 2BR Feb 22-Apr 11: 2450
Marriott Sabal Palms 2BR Feb 22-Apr 11: 2450
Marriott Harbour Lake 2BR Feb 22-Apr 11: 2900
Marriott Cypress Harbour 2BR Feb 22-Apr 11: 2900
Marriott Grande Vista 2BR Feb 22-Apr 11: 4225
Marriott Lakeshore Reserve 2BR Feb 22-Apr 11: 4500

So, they probably would value WKV more than Canyon Villas in the DC, but it probably won't be enough to book comparable space in Hawaii. If they valued WKV high enough to book Hawaii in the DC, that would be hard to rationalize with the other DC point values.

That situation is the best life insurance policy VSN probably has. As long as VSN owners can still get the same value as always in VSN, it doesn't matter as much if the exchange ratios into the DC are different for the MVC locations.
 
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