Those low season defaults affect both deeded ownership and Flex.
As mentioned, Flex attempts to fix a flaw in the original SVO design where low, medium and high seasons were created. The low season owners pay less upfront and in turn get less SOs, but the same MFs.
As time goes by - the low season Owner forgets that their original purchase cost was less, but is now focused on going forward by paying the same MFs as high season owners with less SOs and/or rentability (e.g. WKV). Thus, a higher default rate, and therefore a burden on the HOA with an increase in MFs to cover the delinquent owners. As the default rate increases, this burden increases causing more too default. I wrote about this years ago (pre-Flex) in regards to WSJ-VGV. The WSJ-VGV HOA came up with auctioning off those defaulted Villas. Great idea.
With Flex (and point systems) - it partially solves this problem. But, if more low season weeks get picked up in Flex - it creates an imbalance that logically would lead to Flex Owners not on top of it getting shut out of Maui, and having to go to other resorts. I believe this will show up as more Flex is purchased from the non-HI low season weeks. IMO (note: ‘Opinion’)
Personally, I am keeping my deeds as I own where I want to go, or they are rentable. Also, reserving exactly 12 or 8 months ahead. As more Flex Owners using SOs at the 8-month mark. I also suspect that Maui VSN SO exchanges will have more competition.
This will probably force a merging of VSE and Marriott Timeshares as the only out is to give more choices. IMO and pure speculation.
We shall see...