- Joined
- Jun 6, 2005
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Marriott:
Maui Ocean Club
Waiohai Beach Club
Barony Beach Club
Abound ClubPoints
HGVC:
HGVC at Sea World
Apollo may be desperate - especially with a recession on the horizon.
A recession is always on the horizon to some extent. If people keep saying "A recession is just around the corner" it's going to create one because people will cut back.
Everyone has been screaming recession ever since the very brief yield curve inversion (it actually inverted for a few brief minutes today again), but they are missing the point that this yield curve inversion is happening backward from the typical inversion, so it may mean something totally different. As Byron Wein, the Vice Chariman of Blackstone, said on CNBC this morning, typically the yield curve inverts because the Fed is rapidly raising interest rates in the face of rising inflation, so the short-term yields get boosted above the long term yields and economic growth slows. But in this case, the reverse is happening, long-term rates are being driven down to historic low levels below the already-low short term rates because foreign investors faced with negative yielding bonds all over Europe are being driven to buy U.S. Treasuries because we are about the only place in the world where you can buy high quality government bonds with a positive rate. Our economy is much stronger relative to the rest of the world, so the capital is coming here, driving up long-term bond prices, which drives down long-term yields. That is a totally different economic scenario than the situation that usually causes a yield curve inversion.
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