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Apollo Group looking to buy HGVC [Merged]

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JIMinNC

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Apollo may be desperate - especially with a recession on the horizon.

A recession is always on the horizon to some extent. If people keep saying "A recession is just around the corner" it's going to create one because people will cut back.

Everyone has been screaming recession ever since the very brief yield curve inversion (it actually inverted for a few brief minutes today again), but they are missing the point that this yield curve inversion is happening backward from the typical inversion, so it may mean something totally different. As Byron Wein, the Vice Chariman of Blackstone, said on CNBC this morning, typically the yield curve inverts because the Fed is rapidly raising interest rates in the face of rising inflation, so the short-term yields get boosted above the long term yields and economic growth slows. But in this case, the reverse is happening, long-term rates are being driven down to historic low levels below the already-low short term rates because foreign investors faced with negative yielding bonds all over Europe are being driven to buy U.S. Treasuries because we are about the only place in the world where you can buy high quality government bonds with a positive rate. Our economy is much stronger relative to the rest of the world, so the capital is coming here, driving up long-term bond prices, which drives down long-term yields. That is a totally different economic scenario than the situation that usually causes a yield curve inversion.
 
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csodjd

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A recession is always on the horizon to some extent. If people keep saying "A recession is just around the corner" it's going to create one because people will cut back.

Everyone has been screaming recession ever since the very brief yield curve inversion (it actually inverted for a few brief minutes today again), but they are missing the point that this yield curve inversion is happening backward from the typical inversion, so it may mean something totally different. As Byron Wein, the Vice Chariman of Blackstone, said on CNBC this morning, typically the yield curve inverts because the Fed is rapidly raising interest rates in the face of rising inflation, so the short-term yields get boosted above the long term yields and economic growth slows. But in this case, the reverse is happening, long-term rates are being driven down to historic low levels below the already-low short term rates because foreign investors faced with negative yielding bonds all over Europe are being driven to buy U.S. Treasuries because we are about the only place in the world where you can buy high quality government bonds with a positive rate. Our economy is much stronger relative to the rest of the world, so the capital is coming here, driving up long-term bond prices, which drives down long-term yields. That is a totally different economic scenario than the situation that usually causes a yield curve inversion.
However, the job report was just adjusted downward by 500,000, US Steel is laying people off, copper is in the dumpster, transportation stocks/ETFs are down, and we are hearing about one well-known company after another, albeit something of a trickle, but a steady trickle, filing BK. And, of course, deficits are way up. Finally, what could be the final nail, there is an ENORMOUS amount of corporate debt coming due in the next few years. If banks don’t go along and refinance that debt the BK trickle will be a flood.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrar...uring-in-five-years-rises-to-over-2-trillion/

These are precarious times.
 

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However, the job report was just adjusted downward by 500,000, US Steel is laying people off, copper is in the dumpster, transportation stocks/ETFs are down, and we are hearing about one well-known company after another, albeit something of a trickle, but a steady trickle, filing BK. And, of course, deficits are way up. Finally, what could be the final nail, there is an ENORMOUS amount of corporate debt coming due in the next few years. If banks don’t go along and refinance that debt the BK trickle will be a flood.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mayrar...uring-in-five-years-rises-to-over-2-trillion/

These are precarious times.

That 500,000 revision was over all of 2018 and the first part of 2019, and from what I read was mainly because there weren’t enough job seekers to fill available jobs.

Also for every company that has had issues there are companies like Target and Lowe’s that today reported stellar results. July consumer spending was robust. The CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan, said today that he thinks the strong US consumer is going to keep us out of recession in 2020. But if the talking heads keep saying a recession is coming it will impact consumer confidence and be a self fulfilling prophecy.

We are definitely in the latter stages of the expansion that began in 2009-2010, but since that expansion has been slow and steady rather than a boom, the business cycle is elongated. Given the overall place the economy is in, as long as the trade war doesn’t get too far over the edge, I think the economy will be OK in 2020 and I would be surprised if we see a recession before 2021.
 

csodjd

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Also for every company that has had issues there are companies like Target and Lowe’s that today reported stellar results. July consumer spending was robust. The CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan, said today that he thinks the strong US consumer is going to keep us out of recession in 2020. But if the talking heads keep saying a recession is coming it will impact consumer confidence and be a self fulfilling prophecy.
It is, to me, a false success. If I borrow $500k from the equity of my home, and go on a shopping spree, people will say, wow, he must be doing great, look at all the money he’s spending. Of course, then I’m going to get a bill and I won’t be able to pay it. That’s our economy today. The government is borrowing up the you know what, to enable businesses to APPEAR to be making more money, and to enable individuals to THINK they have more spending money. In the meantime, the deficit will exceed $1 TRILLION — during supposedly “great” economic times. There has to be a day of reckoning. Whether it’s 2020, or 2021, who knows? External forces can make it sooner or later. When considering a “long term” plan, that distinction doesn’t matter.
 

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It is, to me, a false success. If I borrow $500k from the equity of my home, and go on a shopping spree, people will say, wow, he must be doing great, look at all the money he’s spending. Of course, then I’m going to get a bill and I won’t be able to pay it. That’s our economy today. The government is borrowing up the you know what, to enable businesses to APPEAR to be making more money, and to enable individuals to THINK they have more spending money. In the meantime, the deficit will exceed $1 TRILLION — during supposedly “great” economic times. There has to be a day of reckoning. Whether it’s 2020, or 2021, who knows? External forces can make it sooner or later. When considering a “long term” plan, that distinction doesn’t matter.

Oh, no question, that bill is going to come due one of these days. I just don’t think what is going on now and causing all the “buzz” is what is going to send us over that cliff. People have been predicting the cliff is coming soon for a long time, though. It’s like the “Big One” in California. It will come. It could be tomorrow. But it might not be for a long time.
 

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My understanding is that HGVC has no trust-fund based points system. Everyone owns deeds at specific resorts. So, if a merger comes to pass and if DRI management remains in charge, HGVC cannot be a DRI collection.

Why couldn't DRI treat HGVC resorts as another collection. HGVC owners of the resort and unit they own have a 9-12 or 9-13 month window to book as it is now. Then they could either have HGVC owners at other resorts and DRI owners have a 1-9 month window to book which would be the "Club Window"; or if they want to give HGVC owners their own "Club/Collection Window" of 6-9 months, and DRI owners a 1-6 month window.
 

pedro47

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This could be a move to benefit both companies adding more resorts for their clientele.
 

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When we were DRI owners, we enjoyed all the locations are respectable quality....... but we dumped both our DRI weeks because they were quickly becoming as expensive as our Marriott weeks and more expensive than our Hilton weeks without equaling those companies quality standards. If DRI takes over Hilton, I’m afraid I’ll have to give serious consideration to dumping our HGVC week sooner rather than later. I’ve kept Hilton mainly because I like their system and Elara has become our favorite timeshare in Vegas. But I’m more inclined to bail out BEFORE Diamond begins jacking the fee’s and all the bad press starts that’s bound to happen.
 

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Why couldn't DRI treat HGVC resorts as another collection. HGVC owners of the resort and unit they own have a 9-12 or 9-13 month window to book as it is now. Then they could either have HGVC owners at other resorts and DRI owners have a 1-9 month window to book which would be the "Club Window"; or if they want to give HGVC owners their own "Club/Collection Window" of 6-9 months, and DRI owners a 1-6 month window.

In the Diamond world a collection is an HOA which governs its members rights and obligations in a trust fund or pool of timeshare deeds at multiple resorts. Collections then affiliated with Club Diamond which is a proprietary exchange company. The important aspect of an exchange company is to get legal control over the use rights of a timeshare.

If Diamond acquired HGV it could not legally take a HGV deed and assign its use rights to their Club, nor could they transfer it to a trust fund. The HGV Club would remain as is, and current owners would continue using the HGVC as before.

Diamond could approach a HGV deed owner (they would do this on a sales floor but it could be done otherwise) with a deal to join Club Diamond, and thereby have the deed's use rights voluntarily assigned to the exchange company. But this would be done deed by deed and there would be no collection (no trust fund of deeds) involved. Alternatively, Diamond could create a HGV trust fund and encourage deeded owners to surrender their deed in exchange for trust fund points. Owners in this new trust fund would then become members of Club Diamond.

Club Diamond has deeded members whose use rights are assigned to it. They offer this to Gold Key owners in Virginia Beach so long as that person also buys additional trust fund points. So, if the two companies merge and if Diamond's management retains control of the new company, they could permit HGV owners to join the Diamond Club but no collection is necessary for this to happen.

Nevertheless, I don't think anything like this would come to pass, even if Diamond were in control of the final merged company. There is more money to made by keeping HGVC and Club Diamond separate, charging higher prices to HGVC and lower prices to Club Diamond members. This way they could sell into two different income segments of the market.
 

Ralph Sir Edward

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The nine Embarc locations and their club are completely separate from the Diamond Club. Diamond members can stay at an Embarc location only through an II exchange and vice-a-versa.

II for Diamond versus RCI for HGVC? Another interesting conundrum. . . .
 

Tamaradarann

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In the Diamond world a collection is an HOA which governs its members rights and obligations in a trust fund or pool of timeshare deeds at multiple resorts. Collections then affiliated with Club Diamond which is a proprietary exchange company. The important aspect of an exchange company is to get legal control over the use rights of a timeshare.

If Diamond acquired HGV it could not legally take a HGV deed and assign its use rights to their Club, nor could they transfer it to a trust fund. The HGV Club would remain as is, and current owners would continue using the HGVC as before.

Diamond could approach a HGV deed owner (they would do this on a sales floor but it could be done otherwise) with a deal to join Club Diamond, and thereby have the deed's use rights voluntarily assigned to the exchange company. But this would be done deed by deed and there would be no collection (no trust fund of deeds) involved. Alternatively, Diamond could create a HGV trust fund and encourage deeded owners to surrender their deed in exchange for trust fund points. Owners in this new trust fund would then become members of Club Diamond.

Club Diamond has deeded members whose use rights are assigned to it. They offer this to Gold Key owners in Virginia Beach so long as that person also buys additional trust fund points. So, if the two companies merge and if Diamond's management retains control of the new company, they could permit HGV owners to join the Diamond Club but no collection is necessary for this to happen.

Nevertheless, I don't think anything like this would come to pass, even if Diamond were in control of the final merged company. There is more money to made by keeping HGVC and Club Diamond separate, charging higher prices to HGVC and lower prices to Club Diamond members. This way they could sell into two different income segments of the market.

First of all let me state emphatically that I don't want this merger to happen. I understand that there is a difference in how HGVC Operates and the Diamond Collections work, but without getting into the fine details and definitions the following could happen. In the scenario that I developed above HGVC owners would continue to have their Home Week Rights to reserve the unit they own during the 9-12 month season which is all that ownership means in HGVC system, the rest of the benefits are Club benefits which can be changed. After the 9-12 month window is over HGVC owners could join the HGVC Club/Collection (a points conversion between HGVC and DRI would need to be developed) which has all the weeks in the entire HGVC inventory that have NOT been reserved during the Home Week 9-12 month period. After that I gave 2 options one in which all the DRI and HGVC inventory would immediately be open to all DRI and HGVC owners or an interim step which would provide HGVC owners their own exclusive Club/Collection Season before opening it up to all DRI owners as well.
 

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Question on this issue. Why would Apollo put this information out there? Is it to drive stock prices up or down? Drive sales down to lower the stock? Or was this unintentionally leaked out? Maybe some more learned on the subject can help me out on this.
 

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Question on this issue. Why would Apollo put this information out there? Is it to drive stock prices up or down? Drive sales down to lower the stock? Or was this unintentionally leaked out? Maybe some more learned on the subject can help me out on this.

The most likely source is the sales floor.
Hilton sales could tell prospects about access to Lake Tahoe, beach front in Maui, Sedona et...... diamond would be selling the quality upgrade, especially Elara in Vegas

I wouldn’t read to much into this just yet.
 

JIMinNC

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Question on this issue. Why would Apollo put this information out there? Is it to drive stock prices up or down? Drive sales down to lower the stock? Or was this unintentionally leaked out? Maybe some more learned on the subject can help me out on this.
One reason to leak it is to force management's hand. When HGV stock rises from $26 to $32 on the rumor, if the offer is spurned, it will fall right back. Then management has to explain to a lot of big shareholders why they think they can create more shareholder value than selling to Apollo has already proven it can.
 

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The most likely source is the sales floor.
Hilton sales could tell prospects about access to Lake Tahoe, beach front in Maui, Sedona et...... diamond would be selling the quality upgrade, especially Elara in Vegas

I wouldn’t read to much into this just yet.

The sales floor would have NO knowledge of anything like this. These kinds of discussions will be restricted to the top handful of execs at Apollo and HGV. Any leaks are purely designed to put market pressure on the other side to deal. The markets react to credible rumors and management must react to stock prices. Front Four Capital used similar leaks and pressure to force ILG to sell to Marriott Vacations Worldwide.
 

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The sales floor would have NO knowledge of anything like this. These kinds of discussions will be restricted to the top handful of execs at Apollo and HGV. Any leaks are purely designed to put pressure on the other side to deal. The markets react to credible rumors and management must react to stop prices. Front Four Capital used similar leaks and pressure to force ILG to sell to Marriott Vacations Worldwide.

And yet that’s where most rumors start.

They’d have no knowledge that Disney was coming to Branson MO but that didn’t stop timeshare salesmen from telling prospects they were.

No knowledge? No problem! Just make it up and run with it.

Then watch ‘em panic on TUG and see how long the thread will run.

FWIW there’s no mention of this on the DRI threads. Thus I’m a big doubter at this time
 

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This has made me think what if? What if can happen at any time even if it doesn’t this time. My mandatory resort 8400 pt is a guaranteed week that I can easily rent but my intent was to use it at other hgvc resorts. I never would use it myself.

After much thought the last few days I am going back to my original thought process, only own where and when I would be very happy to go.

So not only will I sell my hgvc that I have only for point use, I will also gift the weeks I have that are not hgvc that even though they are the best trader, I would never go to them the time I own them. For others it will be weeks they will use gladly.

I have been struggling and procrastinating letting go of my excess as they were the best traders but this whole Hgvc scenario has made me clear of what I want to do... only own where I would be happy to go.
 

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And yet that’s where most rumors start.

They’d have no knowledge that Disney was coming to Branson MO but that didn’t stop timeshare salesmen from telling prospects they were.

No knowledge? No problem! Just make it up and run with it.

Then watch ‘em panic on TUG and see how long the thread will run.

FWIW there’s no mention of this on the DRI threads. Thus I’m a big doubter at this time

Most rumors on TUG start from Sales, but not market-moving rumors.

The specifics that were contained in the NY Post rumor were specific enough that they appear to be geared towards the market - rumored purchase price, offer price, deal structures, etc. Nothing like that would come from a sales floor.

The fake rumors that would get spread on TUG from sales would never move market prices on a stock by 23%
 

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I have been struggling and procrastinating letting go of my excess as they were the best traders but this whole Hgvc scenario has made me clear of what I want to do... only own where I would be happy to go.

You certainly have to do what you have to do. But, if just based on this recent "announcement," this seems like it may be a strong reaction to something that is barely a rumor at this point.

We own W. 57th (and use it there). Our Vegas points are for use elsewhere (like Big Island). So, it would certainly impact the Flamingo point use, but nowhere near ready to act on this.

Cheers.
 

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You certainly have to do what you have to do. But, if just based on this recent "announcement," this seems like it may be a strong reaction to something that is barely a rumor at this point.

We own W. 57th (and use it there). Our Vegas points are for use elsewhere (like Big Island). So, it would certainly impact the Flamingo point use, but nowhere near ready to act on this.

Cheers.
It really isn’t a strong reaction. With my posts throughout the years I always leaned toward own when and where I wouldn’t mind going where there is higher demand plus low inventory.

I strayed from my core belief, with insight from other tuggers and just going back to my roots of what I truly believe. I actually don’t think this deal will happen but it did make me think and nudge me to clean up my timeshare portfolio. My hgvc will be a flip, sell it and get another affiliate instead.
 

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Not enough here to make a change. Remember, RCI/II remains an option for Diamond members and I don't see that option going away for HGVC if they change the club rules. You can always trade back into HGVC via RCI. Not going to worry about it. We only have one trader that we recouped our capital, and MF is low. It is nice so we could stay there if that's our only option. But a good reminder to stay on top of our portfolio and manage our exposure until the dust settles.
 
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escanoe

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Question on this issue. Why would Apollo put this information out there?

It may not be 100% safe to assume Apollo leaked it and almost certainly wan’t the only party talking on background. I know a fair amount about reporters and media relations from my day work, but less about commercial timeshare investing. @JIMinNC has a good explanation why it might be in Apollo’s interest to have leaked. However, the part in the story that “Blackstone Group could also be a suitor” was probably not in Apollo’s interest.

My bet is individuals from all the parties involved have sources speaking on background. A good reporter picks up a small piece of information from one source and plays everyone off each other. HGVC could have also been the original leaker hoping to drum up competing offers.

The more important journalistic question in my mind is why some other, legitimate and more traditional financial publications have not been able to put a story together on this. Maybe there is limited interest from anyone except us.
 
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I recall that there was a rumor when Vistana was for sale that Diamond was interested and was reportedly having talks with HGVC. I was relieved when I found out Vistana was acquired by MVC. The HGVC rumor died quickly after that. Perhaps that was a ploy to get Vistana to lower their price?
 
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The more important journalistic question in my mind is why some other, legitimate and more traditional financial publications have not been able to put a story together on this. Maybe there is limited interest from anyone except us.

I’m not 100% sure how often more traditional financial media like the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg report on merger speculation, or what level of corroboration they need to report something like this. I perceive the NY Post to be a little more of a tabloid, so my impression is they may have a somewhat lower bar on what level of rumor they are willing to run with.
 

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Not enough here to make a change. Remember, RCI/II remains an option for Diamond members and I don't see that option going away for HGVC if they change the club rules. You can always trade back into HGVC via RCI. Not going to worry about it. We only have one trader that we recouped our capital, and MF is low. It is nice so we could stay there if that's our only option. But a good reminder to stay on top of our portfolio and manage our exposure until the dust settles.

No RCI option for Club Diamond members. Diamond are real SOBs when it comes to exchange options. They will not work with anyone other then II. I cannot even make a reservation with my points and deposit that confirmed reservation.
 
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