Is there a way to track resale prices from recent sales?

[Saintsfanfl]

Yup, but it seems to me that (except for "pure points" contracts) most transfers are ultimately reflected in a new recorded deed, no? Merely pulling ebay completed sales would surely yield skewed results --- skewed severely downward, reflecting the very lowest dollar amount transactions most of the time. What really puzzled me on sharket was seeing exactly the opposite for resorts I know well --- alleged transactions (of specific, current dates) reflecting inordinately high figures that I know to be way out of line for those particular resorts. Could it be that they are perhaps also "pulling" pie-in-the-sky asking prices from various sites (Like RedWeek, MyResortNetwork, SMTN, etc.)? I dunno; I'm just trying to make sense of data that seem "outside the lines".

Not sure but from the ones I saw it did not look that way. For me it looked like completed listings from ebay, redweek, and probably others. I did see some high prices but not enough to have it be asking prices. Most of the high prices I saw fall inline with what I know the property sells foreclosures at and in Marriott's case points purchases mistakenly tagged as a specific resort.

 

[theo]

Wouldn't it be nice if sharket shared some insights into the source(s) of their reported data / information?

 

[VegasBella]

Completed eBay and RedWeek sales can give a clue but you don’t really know the true final sales price or even if the sale went through completely.

Sharket is great if all weeks are similar. It doesn’t account for season, view, etc. I believe they pull from assessors transactions and a number of those may be in-house resales that practically speaking function like developer sales from a TUG perspective.

Try looking at the assessor records yourself. Sometimes you can get the data right there easily once you figure out what all the numbers mean.


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[Saintsfanfl]

Completed eBay and RedWeek sales can give a clue but you don’t really know the true final sales price or even if the sale went through completely.

Sharket is great if all weeks are similar. It doesn’t account for season, view, etc. I believe they pull from assessors transactions and a number of those may be in-house resales that practically speaking function like developer sales from a TUG perspective.

Try looking at the assessor records yourself. Sometimes you can get the data right there easily once you figure out what all the numbers mean.


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If you look at the posts in this thread it looks like Sharket does not pull from assessors transactions. And they do actually display season and specific unit information which would never be found at the county. It appears that they are simply pulling ended sales at ebay (100% confirmed in my case) and probably other sites like redweek. It is not necessarily accurate but it is a very nice place to look for ebay bargain auctions especially since it retains older data that you cannot still see at ebay. My conclusion is inconclusive though. They seem to be missing sales at propertied where the county is not available online but in cases where the county is they do not contain confirmed assessor data like they claim.

 

[ronparise]

The county records aren’t the best place to find sale prices. Deeds typically don’t specify the price. Rather they will say something like “$10 and other good and valuable consideration” There are transfer taxes and if you know the tax rate you can back into the sale price but every state is different and I’d bet Sharket dosent take the time to do it

Recent sales are just one way to determine market value. If you have a unique property or no comparables, There are other approaches, notable the income approach and replacement value approach

For Timeshares I use a modification of the income approach. If I can’t find recent comparable sales, I look for recent comparable rentals. If I find a comparable rental is less than the maintenance fees for the subject timeshare, that timeshare is worth $0. On the other hand if rents are more than the mf. That timeshare has value. How much value can be determined using a present value of a future stream of income calculation

 

[VegasBella]

Sharket details how they get their data here: https://sharket.com/news/how-we-con...harket-timeshare-market-research-methodology/

They explain that public records are the primary source.

 

[theo]

Sharket details how they get their data here: https://sharket.com/news/how-we-con...harket-timeshare-market-research-methodology/

They explain that public records are the primary source.

Thank you for the link, but I still fail to comprehend how / why inordinately high transaction figures somehow appear on sharket for date and dollar specific sales at specific resorts in a county overtly named as being among their top six counties, yet no corresponding deed (in any dollar amount) can actually be found in (very easily searched) County records for that particular date.

 

[vacationtime1]

For Timeshares I use a modification of the income approach. If I can’t find recent comparable sales, I look for recent comparable rentals. If I find a comparable rental is less than the maintenance fees for the subject timeshare, that timeshare is worth $0. On the other hand if rents are more than the mf. That timeshare has value. How much value can be determined using a present value of a future stream of income calculation

A creative approach. But what discount rate do you apply?

The developer sales weasels like to use a T-bill rate because it makes their ridiculous prices pencil out. I think 20-25% is the real number based on lack of control and lack of liquidity, but if we use those rates, very few TS's would be worth even their resale value. (I use 10%; it mysteriously backs into an approximation of FMV in many cases, although I believe it grossly underestimates the economic risks.)

 

[ronparise]

A creative approach. But what discount rate do you apply?

The developer sales weasels like to use a T-bill rate because it makes their ridiculous prices pencil out. I think 20-25% is the real number based on lack of control and lack of liquidity, but if we use those rates, very few TS's would be worth even their resale value. (I use 10%; it mysteriously backs into an approximation of FMV in many cases, although I believe it grossly underestimates the economic risks.)

for me the reason to review recent timeshare sales is to help me decide what to bid when Im buying something, and what to offer my timeshare at, when Im selling. Obviously the best information would be recent comparable sales, but as we see in this thread, sometimes thats difficult information to get a hold of

There was a time in my life when I was buying realestate for income. I always assumed that there was no appreciation potential and I wanted to get my investment back from cash flow. So income had to provide a return on investment and a return of investment I also wanted growth, ie a profit with which to buy more property

Simple guy that I am I planned on getting my money back in 10 years (10% a year) , and a 10% income (this was my pay for doing the work) and 10% profit .. so 30%.
I set my sights on $10000 properties that I could rent for $300 a month

Flash forward to timeshares... I didnt do any calculations at first ... I was able to get a large number of wyndham points for free so I didnt need to calculate value as long as there was some positive cash flow. I was happy. But when I had to pay for something, I went back to my old formula... and stuck with 30% I think that accounts for all the risks

so lets apply it to a hypothetical timeshare purchase with a mf of $1500 and fair market rent of $3000 (an investor would see a $1500 profit every year and a vacationer would see a $1500 savings every year.). Using a 30% discount rate and my 10 year payback goal I should be willing to pay as much as $6000 for that timeshare.

 

[VegasBella]

Thank you for the link, but I still fail to comprehend how / why inordinately high transaction figures somehow appear on sharket for date and dollar specific sales at specific resorts in a county overtly named as being among their top six counties, yet no corresponding deed (in any dollar amount) can actually be found in (very easily searched) County records for that particular date.

If you read the document I linked you will see this below:
"Sometimes the amount of documentary tax stamps or similar fees are directly proportional to the selling price of a timeshare and can be used as a proxy for the selling price when deeds state questionable amounts e.g. $10. However, this method only gives us a range of the transacted dollar amount and requires some assumptions on our part that the parties to the transaction are paying the actual tax based upon the actual transacted amount. Some errors in actual resale price may occur as a result."

I don't work for Sharket so I don't know all the ins and outs. I don't even have an account with them (yet). What you're describing - no record of transfer - is odd and I have no explanation.

So... they are pointing out something confusing if you look just at public records. A number of times if you see a deed transfer at a low price like that then it was between friends or family or it was transferred to a company. So that's when looking at the taxes makes sense to estimate value.

BUT sometimes it was just a savvy buyer and/or desperate seller and thus should probably be considered FMV when evaluating prices. Example: I bought a timeshare at a price of $5000 and I got a great deal. I knew it, which is why I bought it. That specific ownership was normally going for at least $15,000. And that's not developer sales, that's actual resale prices. So clearly my purchase was a bit abnormal and might look on paper like it was a transfer between friends or family when in fact it wasn't. However, the taxes I pay are based on what the assessor decided is fair market value, NOT what I actually paid. So I pay taxes as if the ownership was worth $20,000. If Sharket were analyzing this info they could either choose to accept the $5k price or go with the tax man and assign a price of $20k. I think in my case they go with the recorded deed and not the tax record because anything above $100 probably doesn't raise a red flag. But this points out an issue with determining value. There is sales price and then there is what the tax man says your timeshare is worth

 

[Marathoner]

so lets apply it to a hypothetical timeshare purchase with a mf of $1500 and fair market rent of $3000 (an investor would see a $1500 profit every year and a vacationer would see a $1500 savings every year.). Using a 30% discount rate and my 10 year payback goal I should be willing to pay as much as $6000 for that timeshare.

I don't think I understand the math. By my calculations, you should be willing to pay $9000, no? Because after deducting for your pay and profit, all of the remaining amount can pay for the original investment.

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[ronparise]

I don't think I understand the math. By my calculations, you should be willing to pay $9000, no? Because after deducting for your pay and profit, all of the remaining amount can pay for the original investment.

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I dont understand the math either, I plugged my numbers into a black box.. I did something wrong because I just did it again and got a different answer $4600 this time
https://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/financial/present-value-cash-flows-calculator.php

10 years
1500 cash flow (or savings) per year
30% discount rate

Without the calculator Id see it at $5000
1500 positive cash flow, split 3 ways $500 return of investment, (500x 10 = $5000) $500 income and $500 profit.

 

[crashemt]

Also, when looking at all Clerk recordings in the County records for specific dates, I could not find any timeshare deed recordings corresponding to any transactions involving those properties, as was reflected on sharket.com for that particular property on that particular date. Baffled, I moved on

I still fail to comprehend how / why inordinately high transaction figures somehow appear on sharket for date and dollar specific sales at specific resorts in a county overtly named as being among their top six counties, yet no corresponding deed (in any dollar amount) can actually be found in (very easily searched) County records for that particular date.

I am in the midst of developing a full profile in Osceola County FL for my timeshare (VV at Parkway). I may have some things that could help impact what you are looking for.

If the timeshare used a middle seller, they become harder to discover. I was able to find a bunch of early transactions for the nominal $10 transfer fee where the developer sold to a third-party re-seller. That re-seller was then the seller on the second transaction, and they used a property name from before the founding of the property. In my case, it was Park Eqqis 2. That re-seller had some BIG sales. Maybe that is a source of teh mis-correlation? You are right, county records are extremely easy to search!

Most of the Berkley properties I've found had a ton of $10 sales. I've been able to find many sales for "original amounts", then foreclosures, and then sales of the same units for high amounts. My next goal will be to reach out to those foreclosed, and see if any proceeds from the sale made it to them. The sharket.com records are much lower that what I have found, so far. They only show about 6000 transactions. I've got double that in 3 months of 2011 alone.

 

[theo]

If the timeshare used a middle seller, they become harder to discover. I was able to find a bunch of early transactions for the nominal $10 transfer fee where the developer sold to a third-party re-seller. That re-seller was then the seller on the second transaction, and they used a property name from before the founding of the property. In my case, it was Park Eqqis 2. That re-seller had some BIG sales. Maybe that is a source of teh mis-correlation? You are right, county records are extremely easy to search!

Thanks for your thoughts and input. It is Lee County, FL in which I looked for records matching the sharket.com figures and dates info (so far, with no success, even when using my own relatively recent, personal transactions in that county).

We've owned intervals at a few different properties there for several decades now. All are older, completely, independent (i.e., no "chain" affiliation) properties, all built in the 1980's --- and the developers of course long gone in each instance. Each of them has some (minimal activity) "in house" resales and few (if any) intervals ever appear with the "usual suspect" third party resellers and / or ever seen on eBay. I know that most transactions are privately conducted, with the asking / selling price range certainly very well known among owners.

I have a theory to test when I have some time to dig deeper. I know that BlueGreen has been buying up a lot of good quality fixed weeks at one of the places for a few years now, presumably as "inventory" to offer to their points / vacation club members. I'm now wondering if some of the much-too-high-to-be credible transaction figures that I'm seeing on sharket might actually reflect multiple week purchases by BlueGreen, bunched within a single deed . I'll have to actually find a deed to match the sharket-reported dates and figures (which I've not yet been able to accomplish) to run that theory to ground. We'll see.