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PE and UR Merger Discussion

S

Steamboat Bill

They think ER is their only real competition. They dismiss HCC as a tier or two lower than PE preview.

That's weird....ER does not really view UR/PE as competition for them and HCC thinks PE is their closest competitor.

I wonder if they were putting too much vodka in those martini's
 

Kagehitokiri

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another good comparison, although to be fair, ER wont consider ANYONE to EVER be competition (at least publicly) :D
 

GOLFNBEACH

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That's weird....ER does not really view UR/PE as competition for them and HCC thinks PE is their closest competitor.

I wonder if they were putting too much vodka in those martini's

What they say to potential members and what they say internally in meetings may be entirely different.
 

GOLFNBEACH

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* I got a strange feeling (can't explain) that there was a possibility the merger could not go through. Everyone kept expressing that you should join the club that best meets your requirements based on today's terms pre-merger. Don't read too much into this.
Hmm... very interesting.
Did anyone ask why they are doing this "merger"? So any ideas where you, yourself are heading with this?

Steve said merger discussions were handled primarily between Jim Tousignant and Rich Keith. Growing the business to provide more options for members was the stated reason. A merger between #2 and #3.

As I previously cautioned, please don't read too much into my comment. I just get the feeling that publically they embrace the merger, however, it seems like there may be some friction developing. IMHO only not based on any facts.

Steve also said he welcomed a major player like Starwood to enter the DC market. He believes they would most likely want to buy someone like a combined UR/PE than to start from scratch.
 
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Kagehitokiri

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http://www.heliumreport.com/archive...capes-ceos-talk-about-destination-club-merger
I see no potential problems with combining our business cultures at all.
hmm i clearly remembered wrong. although thats not really addressing the financial aspect of the merger.

joint press release >
http://ultimateresort.com/media/docs/press_releases/Merger_Release.pdf
http://www.privateescapes.com/pdf/press_releases/FINAL_Merger_Release.pdf
Approximately 1,200 club members will have access to hundreds of exclusive club properties
located in nearly 50 of the world’s best resort destinations in the US, Mexico, the Caribbean and
Europe, as well as exclusive access to a select collection of over 60 luxury hotels in dozens of
major cities in the US, Europe, Asia, Middle East, South America and Central America.
The merger is expected to close by mid-November 2007, at which time both company’s assets will be combined.

http://www.heliumreport.com/archive...rm-destination-club-industry-s-largest-merger
The merger will give both Ultimate Resort and Private Escapes members access to over 140 properties, as well as over 60 luxury hotels around the world.

interesting details i havent seen anywhere else >
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/other_business/article/0,2777,DRMN_23916_5696626,00.html
The merger is not an acquisition or purchase. Instead, -Keith said, the two companies are contributing their properties to a new entity. The shareholders of each will take stakes in the new company based primarily on the amount of assets contributed.

all coverage linked >
http://www.privateescapes.com/news/Default.aspx
(i skimmed all print, and radio interview was short and nothing new)

edit >
starwood could easily turn st regis club into an exchangeless DC-like entity if they wanted to. considering they also started luxury collection fractionals, i dont see them starting a DC.

edit >
I was saying that you had a good point about questions on how the merger will affect use of properties by UR and PE members and then raised another questions on how the reservation system may have the potential for inequality.

I agree on your point that there's too much confusion about this merger.
gotcha.
 
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Hmmm. This almost sounds like what one of the posters on TUG was warning about. Now who was that.... ;)

I don't know how I can say it strongly enough ... this "merger" is a train wreck in process. This is classic "How Not to Execute a Business Transaction" 101. The easy part of the merger/acquisition should be determining member programs and benefits (which they can't even do). The hard part, and the part which will DOOM this M/A is the business issues. It appears they haven't even agreed on valuations at this point. I believe it's irresponsible for PE and UR to be marketing the potential benefits of this M/A when it's nowhere near completion!

IMHO:

If you are considering joining PE or UR now ... what the heck are you thinking? Don't become blinded by member programs that don't even exist yet! Wait for the parties to work out the actual M/A basics and then ASK FOR EVERYTHING IN WRITING. Remember that the entity you buy from will NOT be the entity you end up with so you may have reduced or no recourse post-M/A! WAIT to see what happens!

If you are a current PE or UR member, you should be very concerned about what is happening. How much of your clubs assets are being wasted with this M/A attempt? M/As cost millions, more if it gets into litigation (it sounds like it will). You should become very active and find out what's going on and WHY? This may be a sign of trouble with one or both clubs. I hope not for the sake of the DC industry.
 

Kagehitokiri

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it sure seems to me, from whats been released, that both WILL have reciprocity or whatever, but they will NOT guarantee it in writing.

therefore IMHO >
- if you were considering PE, consider it as a standalone, if you get a grandfathered contract
- PE Preview has 100% refund, and might be going away, whereas HCC preview does NOT seem to be going away, so there is no reason not to join it if you were considering PE, or perhaps even if you were considering UR.

OTOH IMHO joining UR seems like it could end EXTREMELY badly in a worst case scenario. unless you simply go for the 80% of current value thing and just cash out if things go south... i mean i guess anyone could do that really, depending on how it works when you want to resign.
 
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GOLFNBEACH

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I don't know how I can say it strongly enough ... this "merger" is a train wreck in process.
IMHO:

.

What are you basing this on?

Very seldom will you ever see a merger where all the details are finalized before the announcement.

All PE and UR members will be grandfathered (in their contracts) with the terms they signed up for.
 

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golfnbeach said:
All PE and UR members will be grandfathered (in their contracts) with the terms they signed up for.
that is not what im talking about. if vineyarder's suggestions are correct, current UR members get absolutely screwed over. or do you disagree with my analysis of the ramifications of his suggestions? >
http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showpost.php?p=398528&postcount=47

if you disagree with my analysis, please explain your thoughts on those issues.

also, perhaps someone can clarify how resigning from UR works, as that would be a factor in deciding whether to join UR now IMHO.

travelguy said:
If you are considering joining PE or UR now ... what the heck are you thinking? Don't become blinded by member programs that don't even exist yet!
right, IMHO look at PE as standalone if grandfathered contract. so NOT "what the heck are you thinking" to those people with everything in writing, right? same with PE Preview - what reason is there to NOT join if grandfathered? you seem to agree there is none, correct? (as you said >)
travelguy said:
ASK FOR EVERYTHING IN WRITING.

so again IMHO the only thing people might want to avoid because of potential negative impact is joining UR now. UNLESS you can resign for a profit without having to wait.

another summary (IMHO) worded differently >
1. PE Preview - could be going away, HCC trial doesnt appear to be, little to no risk with 100% refund
2. PE - look at it as standalone, only if grandfathered

i dont see how the merger could have a negative impact on current PE members. OTOH >

X. UR - merger has potential to have negative impact
 
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A few points...

1. PE platinum get unlimited use of all of UR's properties in the same price range.
2. they can also use UR's higher priced properties, for at least 1 week per year.
> their usage decreases availability for UR members.
> the only thing UR members gain is some PE properties in same price range. which again isnt that great, because theyre sharing with PE members who have unlimited usage.
= UR members get absolutely screwed even though there are twice as many as PE.

A few points...

1) I think that people are putting too much emphasis on the grandfathering of PE 'unlimited usage'; even though usage is 'unlimited', the vast majority of PE members use the properties 25 - 35 nights per year, which is less than the amount allotted to UR Platinum members... so even though they theoretically have the ability to use the properties 365 nights per year, it just isn't happening, and there is no reason to expect that would suddenly change after a merger... a small number may use the properties 60 - 70 nights per year, but that is a very small minority, and as I understand it, the average varies between 25 - 35.

2) Availability, as measured in occupancy rates, are very similar for both clubs, so merging them, without changing anyones 'deal' should have no effect of overall availability. If a = PE members, and b = UR members, and x = occupancy rate, ax + bx = (a+b)x

3) Even though UR has twice as many members as PE, the majority of UR members in both UR and UR Elite are bronze members, with only 14 nights usage per year... when you use 'member equivalents' (the way HCC does), PE and UR are very close in 'full member equivalents'.

4) Since the majority of UR members are bronze members, allowed 14 nights per year, the addition of PE members will have no more effect on their availability than the UR Silver, Gold & Platinum members do currently...

5) From what I am hearing, from both UR and PE, no UR members will be 'screwed'; each member of both clubs will continue to get exactly the deal they signed up for; UR Bronze will still get 14 nights for $XXXX per year, etc. So how are they being screwed if they are getting the same deal they signed up for, at the same price, with the same availability/occupancy rates, but with more selection options? I'm sure that UR will be happy to sell an upgrade to any UR bronze members that want to upgrade before (or after) the merger...

6) It has always been acknowledged that the merger was not a 'done deal', but rather a proposed/intended merger entering a due diligence period, so yes, it still makes sense for anyone considering either or both clubs to consider the possibility that the merger won't happen... doesn't mean that there is any hostility, just that it isn't a certainty until the ink is dry...

The easy part of the merger/acquisition should be determining member programs and benefits (which they can't even do). The hard part, and the part which will DOOM this M/A is the business issues. It appears they haven't even agreed on valuations at this point.

I'm not sure what you are basing this on... from what I have heard, they DID agree on the business issues (management, governance, ownership, etc.) and certainly the valuations... but left the 'easy' part (determining future member benefits & programs) for the due diligence period... On what are you basing your conclusion that the business issues and valuation have not been determined??? Remember, these are both private companies, not public entities, and they have no obligation to disclose to the general public aspects of their business model that they wish to keep confidential. In addition, there very well may be additional information being shared with interested parties (i.e. PE & UR members) that the members cannot share in a public forum. And lastly, there is no reason to believe that the companies are refusing to put promises in writing... Where are you getting the information that is leading you to these conclusions???
 

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what if every current PE member takes 1 week of reciprocity in a UR property?(every year) that was not possible before the merger, but it will be possible if only current PE members have reciprocity, as you suggested might happen. that is what im trying to point out.

ill just say that the press release and the helium report article, plus the fact that it would be negative to UR, seem to indicate fairly clearly to me that there is going to be some form of reciprocity for everyone moving forward, including for people who join post merger. because they havent agreed on the details, they havent said anything about it.

perhaps its the same with entry pricing, theyre spending a lot of time on how to price the 5 plans for the $1MM tier.

if they are making promises in writing about post merger usage not related to grandfathered plans, what are they?
 
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GOLFNBEACH

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ok, if vineyarder's suggestions earlier are accurate then >

= UR members get absolutely screwed even though there are twice as many as PE.

I like vineyarder's terrific summary above. As usual, his analysis is detailed, informative and well written.

UR members have several benefits depending on the club level, nights of usage, guest usage, holiday time, etc.

Join the club that makes the most sense pre-merger. If the merger makes you unconfortable or you want to wait to see how the DC market developes, don't join.
 

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ill just say that the press release and the helium report article, plus the fact that it would be negative to UR, seem to indicate fairly clearly to me that there is going to be some form of reciprocity for everyone moving forward, including for people who join post merger.

I agree that is what is most likely... current PE members are guaranteed it, but my guess is also that some form of reciprocity will be incorporated for all members, pre- and post-merger...

if they are making promises in writing about post merger usage not related to grandfathered plans, what are they?

I did not mean to imply that they are making promises in writing (or verbally) about post-merger use not related to grandfathered plans, only regarding grandfathered plans... this was in response to a comment by someone else that they would not put anything in writing...
 

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what if every current PE member takes 1 week of reciprocity in a UR property?(every year) that was not possible before the merger,

OK - let's run with this assumption. If there are 400 PE members that have the right to use reciprocity, and 100% take advantage of the reciprocity, that would amount to 400 weeks / yr, out of a total inventory of 140 X 52 = 7280 weeks, or 5.5% of the inventory... But realistically, if the $3M members use reciprocity by booking a $2M or $1M home, they are opening up weeks in the $3M club that they would have otherwise used... and if the $2M member uses reciprocity to either the $3M or $1M club, they are also opening up weeks at the $2M level that they would otherwise (absent reciprocity) have used themselves. So the real impact on availability is considerably less than 5.5%... and that is assuming 100% usage! In reality, nowhere near 100% of PE members use reciprocity, so the impact, even in the (less likely) situation where only PE members get reciprocity should be pretty minimal. In addition, to prevent certain homes from being overloaded or booked up by reciprocal members, PE currently has limits on how many days per quarter any individual property can be used for reciprocity, and presumably this quota would be continued, further minimizing the impact. Does this make sense???
 

Kagehitokiri

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i think travelguy was a little ambiguous, i think he was mainly saying
Don't become blinded by member programs that don't even exist yet!

vineyarder, thanks for responding to the reciprocity question - when you break it down that way it seems negligible. the only thing i would say is if youre talking about peak properties/season, it might work out a little differently, and be more noticeable.

so not sure where i stand on UR's outlook i guess. really depended more on how fast you can resign anyway. but i definitely dont see anything wrong with considering PE by its current merits (and joining now)

im working on some pricing numbers now.. can anyone attach files or just moderators? hey, i see theyve updated the boards to include things like multiquote! :cool:
 
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vineyarder

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thanks for responding to the reciprocity question - when you break it down that way it seems negligible. the only thing i would say is if youre talking about peak properties/season, it might work out a little differently, and be more noticeable.

Two things prevent overload at peak properties/seasons; first, under current PE rules, no reciprocity is allowed over Xmas/New Years/Spring Break/Thanksgiving/Presidents Week. Secondly, each individual property can only be used for reciprocity a certain number of days per quarter, so a ski property couldn't be overloaded with reciprocity during peak ski season, only for a certain number of days per quarter.
 

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gotcha.

then if i were considering joining, i would likely only take into account the 2 things that seem very certain to be ending - the unlimited use by PE, and the PE preview plans with 100% refund standard. i guess it might also be smart to get into UR now if you want equity (80% refund of future value)

i think these are reasonable educated guesses as to the post merger pricing of the $2MM and $3MM tier plans >
$165K $255K $270K $285K $300K
$265K $390K $425K $460K $495K

im thinking the $1MM tier will be in the $75K > $150K or $100K > $200K range.
 
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S

Sherpa

GolfnBeach - good summary of last night
Vineyarder - good overview of where the deal stands etc

A couple of other points that came out last night, some of which confirm the points above:

- the $2m home club (ie the mid tier) will be biggest (after the merger) with 40 plus destinations
- the current PE members travel 2 days more on average per year than UR members (so despite the different plan structures there's not a lot of difference in actual usage rates)
- UR is running at 50 to 52 % availability

In Steves exact words they are still looking at reciprocity because "it is a good feature" - read into that what you will, but you can imagine the issues eg if you now grant reciprocity across all levels for all members what does that mean for the original UR members who don't have it - but are grandfathered in with the other terms for their plans - so if you do give that feature to the UR current members should you then also give another feature to the current PE members, all of a sudden grandfathering becomes grandfathering ++. So a few issues to work through and solve.

Cheers
 

Kagehitokiri

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- the $2m home club (ie the mid tier) will be biggest (after the merger) with 40 plus destinations

i came up with >

http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showpost.php?p=397589&postcount=130
combined numbers >
$800K - 24 destinations 30 properties
$1.5MM - 35 destinations 44 properties
$3MM - 23 destinations 27 properties
leftovers in top 2 tiers - 46 properties
total destinations - 44
total properties - 147
+ hotels active next month

so thats interesting, it seems to suggest they are moving at least 5 properties in unique destinations around, presumably coming from the current $3MM tiers.. actually... i dont want to recheck, but im tempted to say its just marketing, considering the total destinations is 44. IIRC, i dont think it would be possible for the $2MM tier to have homes in every destination. it would certainly be nice :D
 
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travelguy

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What are you basing this on?

Very seldom will you ever see a merger where all the details are finalized before the announcement.

Based upon my experiences with M/A, both directly and as an investor. I have been through acquisitions of two privately held companies that I owned. A computer programming company and a chain of high end retail stores. One went great and one took three years to clear up after it imploded. I came out great in both but I could have easily ended up on the down side of things.

I now specialize in investing in the equities of Financial firms both globally traded (ex: Citibank, JPM, etc.) and small, privately held banks that are takeover targets (ex: Bay Financial). The financial industry has been THE hotbed of M/A activity since the tech bust killed IPOs. I've participated in many, especially at the local bank level.

I've learned several things about M/A in my experience. One is that it's always worse on the "inside" than it appears to the casual observer. Second is that successful M/As have the basic business deal in place BEFORE any announcement and the resulting issues to be decided are usually the result of previously undisclosed items that routinely come-up in the due diligence process. Third is that when a M/A fails it usually catches everyone on the "outside" off-guard. Forth is that outside investors approach M/A like buyers at a bankruptcy auction ... with larceny in their heart, and are blinded to the downside of a M/A. Fifth is that there is usually an underlying reason that is not initially disclosed for one or both parties to participate in the M/A.

Having said all that, I'd say that my totally unscientific analysis of the PE/UR merger is that it is not "put together" enough. It sounds like they are not working on the details, they are still working on the DEAL! Also, I don't buy the reason for the merger as just wanting to get bigger by combining #2 & #3. Here's only two of many issues to think about. Is it coincidence that this is happening just prior to the time (Dec 31st) when UR and PE should requalify for the DCA and their "net asset test"? Does anyone really know the financial heath of UR after swallowing up T&H? Has anyone seen a recent, audited statement for UR or PE (ending sometime in 2007?). Theres more and it's worse but I'll stop at these.

And finally, what if there is even a hint of the M/A going south and members get antsy and decide to ask for membership fee refunds?

All PE and UR members will be grandfathered (in their contracts) with the terms they signed up for.

To play Devils Advocate some more .... those are the PE and UR contracts. My understating is that PE and UR will not exist after the M/A. Are you SURE that you are grandfathered?

And as to the question on my statement of "The easy part of the merger/acquisition should be determining member programs and benefits (which they can't even do). The hard part, and the part which will DOOM this M/A is the business issues."

A) If they don't get the biz issues done, the rest is irrelevant.
B) Which issue to you think PE and UR are negotiating most - How much they get paid or where you can vacation next year?

Of course this is all just speculation on my part and no one should lose any sleep over it. My main point is that the financial structure and stability of the resulting entities, after either a successful or unsuccessful M/A, should be the focus of any buying decision and not how many days you get where and when. These issues can and hopefully will get worked out. However, I would caution that waiting may be the prudent move here.
 

GOLFNBEACH

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Having said all that, I'd say that my totally unscientific analysis of the PE/UR merger is that it is not "put together" enough.
.

Only time will tell.

But I think it's a bit of a stretch when you say..."I don't know how I can say it strongly enough ... this "merger" is a train wreck in process."

Anyone thinking of joining can ask for audited financial statements and the auditors opinion letter. You can talk to the CFO. In the end if you're not confortable don't join.

Personally I like the concept of DCs and will continue to evaluate all options.
 

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i guess it might also be smart to get into UR now if you want equity (80% refund of future value)

The 'equity' component (80% of then current value) refund policy has also been adopted by PE, in order to more closely align PE & UR offerings, and will most likely also continue in the new offerings after the merger...

i think these are reasonable educated guesses as to the post merger pricing of the $2MM and $3MM tier plans >
$165K $255K $270K $285K $300K
$265K $390K $425K $460K $495K

im thinking the $1MM tier will be in the $75K > $150K or $100K > $200K range.

Pure speculation on my part, but just for fun, I'll guess the pricing will look something like this...

$1M: 65K / 90K / 110K / 130K / 150K
$2M: 150K / 230K / 250K / 275K / 295K
$3M: 220K / 325K / 350K / 375K / 400K

I think that they'll keep the $3M club below comparable plans offered by ER, which is now at $239K/$349K/$459K, and will want the 'entry level' plan at the $1M club to be within range of HCC offerings (I realize this would put the 14 night PE/UR plan at a similar price with the 45 night HCC plan, so I am not suggesting they are comparable, just that they will have the membership deposit start at a level that is in the same ballpark). Again, this is all pure speculation and not based on any sort of inside information...
 

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Originally Posted by Sherpa
- the $2m home club (ie the mid tier) will be biggest (after the merger) with 40 plus destinations

Here's my guess of how the destination lists will end up for the combined club... I'm not sure how the $2M club would make it to 40 destinations, unless there are some new properties about to be acquired that haven't been announced...

$1M (31 DESTINATIONS)

• Abaco
• Beaver Creek, CO
• Belize, Central America
• Cap Cana
• Chicago, IL
• Fox Acres, CO
• Jackson Hole, WY
• Kiawah Island, SC
• La Buscadora, BVI (yacht)
• La Costa, CA
• La Quinta, CA:
• Lake George, NY
• Lake Las Vegas, NV
• Lake Tahoe, NV
• Los Cabos, Mexico:
• Naples
• New York City, NY:
• Outer Banks, NC
• Orlando
• Punta Cana, Dom. Rep.
• Punta Mita, Mexico
• Reynolds Plantation, GA
• Scottsdale
• Steamboat Springs, CO
• Stowe, VT
• Sunny Isles/Miami
• Telluride
• Turks and Caicos, BWI
• Tuscany, Italy:
• Waikoloa, HI:
• WaterColor, FL


$2M (35 DESTINATIONS)

• Abaco Island, Bahamas
• Breckenridge
• Cap Cana
• Chicago, IL
• Candlewood Lake, CT
• Copper Mountain, CO
• Jackson Hole, WY
• Kiawah Island, SC
• La Buscadora, BVI (yacht)
• La Costa, CA
• La Quinta, CA
• Lake George, NY
• Lake Tahoe
• London
• Los Cabos, Mexico
• Maui
• Miami
• Naples
• New York City, NY
• Nevis
• Oahu
• Orlando
• Outer Banks, NC
• Palm Beach
• Park City
• Punta Cana, Dom. Rep.
• Reynolds Plantation, GA
• Scottsdale
• Steamboat Springs
• Stowe
• Telluride, CO
• Turks and Caicos, BWI
• Tuscany, Italy
• Vail
• WaterColor, FL


$3M (24 DESTINATIONS)

• Abaco Island, Bahamas
• Charleston, SC
• Deer Valley/Park City
• Jackson Hole
• Kiawah
• La Buscadora, BVI (yacht)
• La Quinta
• Lake Tahoe
• London
• Los Cabos, Mexico
• Maui
• Naples
• New York City, NY
• Nevis
• Palm Beach
• Paris
• Scottsdale
• St. Thomas
• Steamboat Springs
• Stowe
• Sun Valley
• Telluride
• Vail
• WaterColor, FL
 

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Pure speculation on my part, but just for fun, I'll guess the pricing will look something like this...

$1M: 65K / 90K / 110K / 130K / 150K
$2M: 150K / 230K / 250K / 275K / 295K
$3M: 220K / 325K / 350K / 375K / 400K

...

What are you speculating that you get for $65K and $90K - is this the trial/preview? Currently the least expensive memberships are UR Bronze at $125K, and PE Premier at $105.

If you have a chance I'd love to see your speculation on annual dues as well. Thanks,
 
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Kagehitokiri

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for my numbers, i started with 1.3X like theyve said, then rounded, and made all the gaps between prices (within and between tiers) fit into similar patterns as the current pricing.

itd certainly be a major competitive factor if they remained equity. the final details are going to be really interesting.
 
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