ROFR metric / Ongoing ROFR Activity

[Mlvnsmly]

$450, this one also had a week booked for next year and the other one did not.

Its nice to see a resale go through! What dates were both submitted to Marriott?

 

[TXTortoise]

Hi Greg, it wasn’t Emmy’s. Her week is in March, but same unit. I’d been watching these two weeks for over a year, but wanted 7210. When his price kept dropping I made an offer and he took it. Guess both of us were wishing I’d gone higher.

Jim’s comment is right on target. Wish we had more data points on the price/point curve for ROFR. At this rate we may soon.

Would have given me more options for when to visit for sure and great rental when not.

I was so focused on total cost, ROFR didn’t really cross my mind. I bet this might have gotten through six months ago, but new reality.

 

[lisa3635]

Its nice to see a resale go through! What dates were both submitted to Marriott?

I think it was submitted August 11 and waived yesterday.

 

[JIMinNC]

Hi Greg, it wasn’t Emmy’s. Her week is in March, but same unit. I’d been watching these two weeks for over a year, but wanted 7210. When his price kept dropping I made an offer and he took it. Guess both of us were wishing I’d gone higher.

Jim’s comment is right on target. Wish we had more data points on the price/point curve for ROFR. At this rate we may soon.

Would have given me more options for when to visit for sure and great rental when not.

I was so focused on total cost, ROFR didn’t really cross my mind. I bet this might have gotten through six months ago, but new reality.

I think if I were looking to make an offer on a week right now, and if it was a week that I really wanted and one that didn't show up very often, I think I would be inclined to offer at least $3.00 to $3.25 per point based on the DP point value for that week - maybe even $3.50 if I really wanted to increase my chances of passing. I think it's futile to try to analytically find the precise break-point in the ROFR exercise/pass curve as there are so many variables we don't know (i.e. - the accuracy of the data posted on ROFR.net, and whether the price posted was indeed what was submitted by the seller to MVC). I do think we can see that as the price gets over about $3/point, the likelihood of ROFR starts to drop. It may still get ROFR'd, but the odds improve. Similarly, the break point on Destination Points ROFR seems to be in that same $3.25/point to $4.00/point range.

I wish I had the time to expand my analysis in post #827 to more than just those three Hawaii resorts. Would be great if there was a way to export the ROFR.net data into Excel and then merge it in some way with the point value data for each transaction using the data from Steven Ting's Google Docs spreadsheet.

 

[dioxide45]

Would be great if there was a way to export the ROFR.net data into Excel and then merge it in some way with the point value data for each transaction using the data from Steven Ting's Google Docs spreadsheet.

It is possible. The ROFR.net database does include some point values for each resort/season/week, but I don't know how complete it is. I would have to see about getting a report that can pull the information together since the results of ROFR are stored in a different table than the point values.

 

[hangloose]

Well, a beautiful set of MOC Lahaina 2BR fixed weeks, Unit 8210, are off the market. Marriott took them at $20k each. :-(

Weeks 3-4

Ralph - Great weeks at a great price. Bummer that MVC took them via ROFR. Appears they are taking nearly everything right now. But, not many reports of ROFR at 20k/week. Guess the fixed OF Maui hit the mark for MVC paying more. Thinking positively...perhaps this is a sign that...your 7210 will come up down the road instead of 8210.

 

[GregT]

Ralph - Great weeks at a great price. Bummer that MVC took them via ROFR. Appears they are taking nearly everything right now. But, not many reports of ROFR at 20k/week. Guess the fixed OF Maui hit the mark for MVC paying more. Thinking positively...perhaps this is a sign that...your 7210 will come up down the road instead of 8210.

Ralph,

This leads to an interesting idea. Why not reach out to the 7210 owner and provide them a copy of the purchase (ROfR’d) contract as evidence of truly MV - and offer them $25K or $30K?

May be enough. Good luck and thanks!

Best,

Greg

 

[TXTortoise]

Owner of three week 7210 string still not interested in selling. Missed it by a quarter. For sale 4qtr 2016, then decided to rent them. (At least I was able to identify them after 2018 visit.) That’s why I moved on the 8210 pair.

Still tracking down owner of Week 8. No luck with note under door last year, but will be out there that week in 2019 and will try again.

Happy to have my 2BR OF old building float to fill my inside straight as needed.

 

[MOXJO7282]

Well, a beautiful set of MOC Lahaina 2BR fixed weeks, Unit 8210, are off the market. Marriott took them at $20k each. :-(

Weeks 3-4

That totally stinks! I just had a Lahaina OV pass at $21k. Not quite the deal and not OF but I was still a little worried with Marriott's recent pattern.

 

[JIMinNC]

That totally stinks! I just had a Lahaina OV pass at $21k. Not quite the deal and not OF but I was still a little worried with Marriott's recent pattern.

A Lahaina OV is worth 6625 DPs, so at $21,000, that would have been a $3.17 per point cost to Marriott. It sure seems somewhere around or just above that $3/point area is where things start getting more likely to pass. With what's going on now, I feel much better about my $8,000 EOY 2BR OV in the original towers that passed back in January. That price netted out to $2.75/point, but they let it go. Maybe they have a lower threshold for EOY weeks or they weren't being as aggressive then?

 

[amy241]

I just submitted another offer for $11,000 for a Marriott Ko Olina Oceanview Platinum week. I’ll keep my fingers crossed. I’ll post what happens here and on ROFR.net. Not sure if this is going to be high enough to pass given Marriott’s more aggressive approach.

 

[TXTortoise]

A Lahaina OV is worth 6625 DPs, so at $21,000, that would have been a $3.17 per point cost to Marriott. It sure seems somewhere around or just above that $3/point area is where things start getting more likely to pass. With what's going on now, I feel much better about my $8,000 EOY 2BR OV in the original towers that passed back in January. That price netted out to $2.75/point, but they let it go. Maybe they have a lower threshold for EOY weeks or they weren't being as aggressive then?

Yeah, I really didn’t want to pay more, due to total cost, but should have done some regression at price/points since we’d just been discussing that. Could be two EOY weeks may be the niche for value, if one can find even and odd that works. Not sure why Marriott would care as they all go in the points pool.

 

[JIMinNC]

It is possible. The ROFR.net database does include some point values for each resort/season/week, but I don't know how complete it is. I would have to see about getting a report that can pull the information together since the results of ROFR are stored in a different table than the point values.

Even if all the point values can't be merged automatically on your end, as long as the ROFR data was in an Excel sheet with all the relevant data showing date, size, view, EY/EOY, pass/fail, etc. in separate columns, it might not be that onerous to add Steven's data manually and do the calculation.Would probably want to restrict the data to the last 12-18 months for relevance, anyway, so that would limit to some degree the number of data points. How many Marriott ROFR transactions have been posted in the last 12-18 months?

 

[MOXJO7282]

So $21k was not low enough for MVC to snag an OV but a OF at the same price was taken. I would bet the OF number is $23k or maybe $24k.

 

[JIMinNC]

So $21k was not low enough for MVC to snag an OV but a OF at the same price was taken. I would bet the OF number is $23k or maybe $24k.

That would be my guess as well. Comes out to about $3.10 - $3.25/per point for L/N Villas. Nothing with ROFR is guaranteed, but if I were looking for one of those, I would be reluctant to contract to buy at prices under about what you suggest. Prices in that range at least give you a decent chance to pass, I think.

 

[amy241]

Marriott exercised ROFR on my $11,000 Marriott Ko Olina oceanview platinum week yesterday. Strike 2. Syed says they are buying back all the oceanview weeks lately. I will add this to ROFR.net.

 

[JIMinNC]

Thanks to dioxide45 for providing me an Excel export of the data in the ROFR.net database so I could do a little number crunching on the pass/fail metrics. Fortunately, that export contained the DC point value for most of the weeks in the data, but I used Steven Ting's online Google doc to fill in the few gaps. For now, I limited my analysis to the last 12 months, but might go back later to do another year or two. Not sure it would be worthwhile to go back farther than that, though, especially since what the data shows so far isn't particularly revealing.

The image below summarizes 203 ROFR.net entries over the last 12 months. I calculated the price per DC Point for each and looked at whether they passed or failed. The logic of this is as I mentioned in a post above -- if MVC is using ROFR to add inventory to the Trust, they would look at what exercising ROFR would cost them per point added to the Trust. That might not be the ONLY consideration in the decision, but it should be a key factor. I looked at pass/fail rates in roughly $0.50/point increments between $2/point and $4/point and the rates above and below those levels.

Here are the key data points as I see them:

• Overall, 52% of ROFR.net submissions passed ROFR
• Almost two-thirds of the submissions were at prices that resulted in a price/point of under $2/point. Only 46% of those passed.
• There were only 21 submissions reported at $4/point or more and 62% of those passed
• Between $2/point and $4/point, the pass rate was also 62%.
• The $0.50 increment breakdown results in small sample sizes in each category, so I'm not sure the variations seen in those increments really mean anything other than random variation.

Before I started this, based on the preliminary work I did a week or two ago looking at Hawaii ROFR, I would have theorized that somewhere around $3/point was the sweet spot for having a decent shot at getting past ROFR. But when we look at all 203 entries in ROFR.net over the last year, it appears you have just as much of a shot with an offer of $2/point or more.

One significant item from the detail data can be seen in this next screen shot. Of the ROFR Failures at prices over $3/point, all but one were points resales. So, all but one of the fifteen weeks that were submitted at a price that resulted in a per point cost of $3/point or more, passed ROFR. That's a pass rate of 93% for weeks.

I didn't do a detailed isolation of weeks versus points below $3/point, but just eye-balling the data, the VAST majority of the ROFR submissions below $3/point are weeks, so the pass rate below $3/point for weeks would likely be very close to the 49% overall average noted in the first image above. So the passage rate for weeks of 93% above $3/point versus about 50% or so below that, is a significant variation.

There were 25 DC points resales submitted above $3/point, of those, 11 passed and 14 failed, a pass rate of only 44%. Above $4/point, the were 15 entries, and 7 passed, for a pass rate of only 47%. There were only two at $4.50/point or above - one failed and one passed. Points seem to fail at a much higher price than weeks. Not sure why if they all go back into the Trust.

So, based on all of this, I would conclude the following:

• ROFR does still appear somewhat random, even when looking at the data very organically.
• If you want the best chances to pass for a resale week, always make sure your offer is more than $2/point based on the DC point value of the week.
• If you are after a hard-to-find week that you don't want to risk failing, offering over $3/point may be prudent.
• For DC Points resales, you probably need to be at $4/point or more to have a good chance of passage, and even then, the odds appear to be 50-50 at best.

As always, we need to remember though that these results are only as good as the underlying data, and ROFR.net is still a user-sourced database, so the data entered may not be consistent.

I'm glad I didn't have to spend more than a couple hours doing this, because it didn't provide as conclusive an answer as I thought it might.

 

[Fasttr]

^^^. Thanks for the work anyhow Jim.

 

[amy241]

Thanks to dioxide45 for providing me an Excel export of the data in the ROFR.net database so I could do a little number crunching on the pass/fail metrics. Fortunately, that export contained the DC point value for most of the weeks in the data, but I used Steven Ting's online Google doc to fill in the few gaps. For now, I limited my analysis to the last 12 months, but might go back later to do another year or two. Not sure it would be worthwhile to go back farther than that, though, especially since what the data shows so far isn't particularly revealing.

The image below summarizes 203 ROFR.net entries over the last 12 months. I calculated the price per DC Point for each and looked at whether they passed or failed. The logic of this is as I mentioned in a post above -- if MVC is using ROFR to add inventory to the Trust, they would look at what exercising ROFR would cost them per point added to the Trust. That might not be the ONLY consideration in the decision, but it should be a key factor. I looked at pass/fail rates in roughly $0.50/point increments between $2/point and $4/point and the rates above and below those levels.

Here are the key data points as I see them:

• Overall, 52% of ROFR.net submissions passed ROFR
• Almost two-thirds of the submissions were at prices that resulted in a price/point of under $2/point. Only 46% of those passed.
• There were only 21 submissions reported at $4/point or more and 62% of those passed
• Between $2/point and $4/point, the pass rate was also 62%.
• The $0.50 increment breakdown results in small sample sizes in each category, so I'm not sure the variations seen in those increments really mean anything other than random variation.

View attachment 8053

Before I started this, based on the preliminary work I did a week or two ago looking at Hawaii ROFR, I would have theorized that somewhere around $3/point was the sweet spot for having a decent shot at getting past ROFR. But when we look at all 203 entries in ROFR.net over the last year, it appears you have just as much of a shot with an offer of $2/point or more.

One significant item from the detail data can be seen in this next screen shot. Of the ROFR Failures at prices over $3/point, all but one were points resales. So, all but one of the fifteen weeks that were submitted at a price that resulted in a per point cost of $3/point or more, passed ROFR. That's a pass rate of 93% for weeks.

I didn't do a detailed isolation of weeks versus points below $3/point, but just eye-balling the data, the VAST majority of the ROFR submissions below $3/point are weeks, so the pass rate below $3/point for weeks would likely be very close to the 49% overall average noted in the first image above. So the passage rate for weeks of 93% above $3/point versus about 50% or so below that, is a significant variation.

There were 25 DC points resales submitted above $3/point, of those, 11 passed and 14 failed, a pass rate of only 44%. Above $4/point, the were 15 entries, and 7 passed, for a pass rate of only 47%. There were only two at $4.50/point or above - one failed and one passed. Points seem to fail at a much higher price than weeks. Not sure why if they all go back into the Trust.

View attachment 8055

So, based on all of this, I would conclude the following:

• ROFR does still appear somewhat random, even when looking at the data very organically.
• If you want the best chances to pass for a resale week, always make sure your offer is more than $2/point based on the DC point value of the week.
• If you are after a hard-to-find week that you don't want to risk failing, offering over $3/point may be prudent.
• For DC Points resales, you probably need to be at $4/point or more to have a good chance of passage, and even then, the odds appear to be 50-50 at best.

As always, we need to remember though that these results are only as good as the underlying data, and ROFR.net is still a user-sourced database, so the data entered may not be consistent.

I'm glad I didn't have to spend more than a couple hours doing this, because it didn't provide as conclusive an answer as I thought it might.

So based upon your research, what offer do you predict would be needed for a Ko Olina week to pass?

 

[vacationtime1]

I'm glad I didn't have to spend more than a couple hours doing this, because it didn't provide as conclusive an answer as I thought it might.

I find your answer to be extremely useful, even if counterintuitive. You are showing that Marriott continues to act inconsistently on ROFR -- especially on ROFR submissions for DC points. This reinforces the TUG mantra of "if you don't succeed, try again". Many should take encouragement from that.

It might be interesting to sort your data set by date rather than price; we are all reading the Marriott has been getting more aggressive about ROFR. If you did the same analysis using ROFR data drawn from the second half of 2018 only, would you get the same result? Perhaps we will know in early 2019.

 

[Steve Fatula]

I find your answer to be extremely useful, even if counterintuitive. You are showing that Marriott continues to act inconsistently on ROFR -- especially on ROFR submissions for DC points. This reinforces the TUG mantra of "if you don't succeed, try again". Many should take encouragement from that.

And to expand a little, it means that one doesn't have to just keep upping the price on DC points, as counter intuitive as that may seem. Obviously, it will always appear that if you offer $4, fails ROFR, go to $4.50, fails ROFR, and go to $5 and it passes, that your increasing offers caused the success. When it could also have been 3 offers of $4 each would have resulted in a pass as well. A little patience and you may be rewarded.

 

[TXTortoise]

It also reinforces, that at least for Hawaii fixed weeks, you really only get one chance for a particularly week and unit, i.e., no do-overs like with points and floating weeks...

 

[JIMinNC]

So based upon your research, what offer do you predict would be needed for a Ko Olina week to pass?

Here are the point values for KoOlina (all Platinum season) and the prices that would correspond to $2/point and $3/point:
2BR Mountain View -- 4025 -- @ $2/point: $8,050; @ $3/point: $12,075
2BR Ocean View -- 4950 -- @ $2/point: $9,900; @ $3/point: $14,850
2BR Penthouse OV -- 5925 -- @ $2/point: $11,850; @ $3/point: $17,775
3BR Mountain View -- 5125 -- @ $2/point: $10,250; @ $3/point: $15,375
3BR Ocean View -- 6550 -- @ $2/point: $13,100; @ $3/point: $19,650

Based on the data, I would guess anything over the $2/point prices would have a better than 50%-60% chase of passing, but failure would not be a surprising outcome either. If you want to be more certain, especially if it is a week that doesn't show up that often, maybe offer closer to or over the $3/point price. As always, these are based on the accuracy or inaccuracy of the underlying data, so YMMV.

Your $11K price you posted above for, I assume a 2BR OV worth 4950 points, equates to $2.22/point. Not unreasonable to think it could have passed based on the data, but as I noted above, over $3/point has a pass rate of 93% for WEEKS.

 

[amy241]

Here are the point values for KoOlina (all Platinum season) and the prices that would correspond to $2/point and $3/point:
2BR Mountain View -- 4025 -- @ $2/point: $8,050; @ $3/point: $12,075
2BR Ocean View -- 4950 -- @ $2/point: $9,900; @ $3/point: $14,850
2BR Penthouse OV -- 5925 -- @ $2/point: $11,850; @ $3/point: $17,775
3BR Mountain View -- 5125 -- @ $2/point: $10,250; @ $3/point: $15,375
3BR Ocean View -- 6550 -- @ $2/point: $13,100; @ $3/point: $19,650

Based on the data, I would guess anything over the $2/point prices would have a better than 50%-60% chase of passing, but failure would not be a surprising outcome either. If you want to be more certain, especially if it is a week that doesn't show up that often, maybe offer closer to or over the $3/point price. As always, these are based on the accuracy or inaccuracy of the underlying data, so YMMV.

Your $11K price you posted above for, I assume a 2BR OV worth 4950 points, equates to $2.22/point. Not unreasonable to think it could have passed based on the data, but as I noted above, over $3/point has a pass rate of 93% for WEEKS.

Thank you this is very helpful. Since $9500 and $11,000did not pass, I may have to be closer to $3.00 per point. I wonder if there is any value to trying $11,000 again?

 

[JIMinNC]

It might be interesting to sort your data set by date rather than price; we are all reading the Marriott has been getting more aggressive about ROFR. It you did the same analysis using ROFR data drawn from the second half of 2018 only, would you get the same result? Perhaps we will know in early 2019.

I don't have time to do a more detailed look, but I think the problem with just looking at the last few months is not enough data. There are only 66 ROFR.net submissions since May 1. Of those, 41 Failed ROFR and only 25 passed, a pass rate of only 38%.

The problem is, there were only 2 submissions at an over $3/point valuation (both passed), and only 12 total submissions over $2/point (including the two $3+). So, here is what that very limited data shows:

$3/point or more: 2 TOTAL -- 2 pass; 0 fail --100% pass
$2/point or more: 12 TOTAL -- 7 pass; 5 fail -- 58% pass
Between $2/pt & $3/Pt -- 10 TOTAL -- 5 pass; 5 fail ---50% pass

So that reinforces that the odds improve over $3/point. But the data set is so small, I'm not sure it is meaningful.

Below is the raw data. Sorry for the eye test.