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Where do you see timeshares in 50 years?

Discussion in 'TUG Lounge' started by Fredflintstone, Sep 11, 2019.

  1. Fredflintstone

    Fredflintstone TUG Member

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    The timeshare industry has changed from deeded ownership to points ownership over the last 10 years.

    In 50 years, I see:

    1. The term ownership will be replaced with membership. You will get condo hotel accommodations and pay a membership fee instead of a maintenance fee. Like a golf club membership, you will pay an upfront charge to be a member. Prices will vary based the status of the hotel chain.

    2. Timeshare membership will have strict laws on sales. I see Lawyers involved in the transactions to ensure honesty instead of backroom sign offs.

    3. Timeshare companies will be forced to take back any and all deeds at a prescribed fair value from all past owners. Owners will be given the chance first to become members if they want.

    4. I see intermediary exchange companies gone (like RCI) and brands merging with a unified, low cost trade system.

    5. I see memberships sold as pre paid memberships with discounted rates for members in return. There will never be a special assessment risk.

    6. I see legacy timeshares being gobbled up by major brands or sold off. Many will be in such disrepair, they will need to be mowed down.

    7. I see membership points or exchanges being available to members forever. In other words, there will not be 2 year limits on using their benefits. Charging extension fees to keep earned benefits will be banned.

    8. Membership values will not drop like a rock like timeshares have and have a better reputation.

    9. Memberships will be a lot easier to get rid of.

    What do you think will happen with timeshares in 50 years?


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
     
  2. CalGalTraveler

    CalGalTraveler TUG Member

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    Interesting thread.

    As you pointed out, the concept of a timeshare system will be replaced by prepaid points systems. IMHO...The biggest difference from today is that the hotel branded timeshares will not be separate properties from the hotels. The properties in every hotel system will be available in a prepaid points club.

    The trend of HGVC to co-locate floors in Hilton hotels, Marriott Pulse and Ritz Residences are a first step in this transformation. The benefit to the hotel franchise owner is that they get a more stable income for their hotel property and this provides a buffer for maintaining higher occupancy rates. i.e. the hotel systems will be split between prepaid loyalty clubs and higher priced pay as you go rooms.

    Timeshare artifacts will exist with weeks/deeds for certain weekly intervals at select ocean front or ski weeks that will be passed down by families. Think ocean front MOC, WKORV, Hyatt Kaanapali, Oahu. But this constitutes only a small percentage of system and these will be the holdouts.
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2019
    Fredflintstone likes this.
  3. easyrider

    easyrider TUG Review Crew: Expert TUG Member

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    Has timeshare evolved from fixed deeded week to floating week to points ? I have owned all three of these products. The points memberships I own are very similar to my floating multi-resort weeks. I didn't like the fixed deeded weeks at one location and will likely never have another.

    I doubt that timeshares will change much more than they all ready have because there wouldn't be any profit to do so. The big companies will be the norm is what is slowly happening. Regarding sales and contracts, why would they change ? One change that could happen is the timeshare companies will make it hard to resell their product. Some companies do strip owner benefits away when sold resale.

    Small blocks of right to use might become normal as older people buy in. I'm 60 so why would I want a life time dealio ? I would consider a five or ten year rtu.

    Bill
     
  4. geist1223

    geist1223 Guest

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    Most of the current coastal timeshares will be gone because of the rising sea levels. Mau'i will again be 2 separate Islands.
     
  5. CalGalTraveler

    CalGalTraveler TUG Member

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    FWIW...This discussion is not specific to Hawaii so should be moved to the TUG Lounge or other general forum.
     
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  6. RX8

    RX8 TUG Member

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    I’ll be seeing the timeshares either by looking down or up, depending on how good I’ve been. :)
     
  7. bogey21

    bogey21 TUG Member

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    I agree with the part of your post shown above. In my lifetime I have seen the evolution of Fixed Weeks into Floating Weeks then into Points. IMO the next logical step will be into Memberships with a large initiation fees and monthly dues...

    George
     
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  8. Passepartout

    Passepartout TUG Review Crew: Veteran TUG Member

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    I won't have to worry about it. There won't be timeshares where I'll be. It'll be more or less permanent.
     
  9. Ralph Sir Edward

    Ralph Sir Edward TUG Member

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    No more big timeshare companies. The up front sales model will finally die, because of a lack of customers. Existing one will either end up in a "country club" type arrangement, a few will limp along, as is, and many will disintegrate.
     
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  10. vacationtime1

    vacationtime1 Tug Review Crew: Rookie TUG Member

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    Sorry, but cemeteries will be sold as 100 year RTU's. And never as eoy's.
     
  11. PigsDad

    PigsDad TUG Member

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    Actually, when we were visiting my wife's relatives in Denmark, we went to some grave sites and that is exactly what they do there -- each grave site has a 75 year lease. Unless your relatives renew the lease, your plot is reused after the lease is up!
    Kurt
     
  12. spirits

    spirits TUG Member

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    Interesting ideas. The baby boomers who drove those timeshare purchases are retiring and getting older. They will not be travelling like when they were young...and the newer generations are not travelling in that way. The timeshare model is dying with the internet and Airbnb taking over.

    Why buy when you can easily rent, and walk away?
    The sleezy timeshare practices are still out there and the younger generation have seen their parents and grandparents stuck with timeshare payments that few people use.

    Up here in Canada, we have seen a lot of fractionals offered for sale. People buy quarter shares or 1/3 ownership....some sort of part time ownership with unused time put into a pool for rental income. All that has done is stick some poor people with multiple weeks of maintenance fees...not just a week. What a deal.....you get to pay forever for many weeks....forever. Those lucky salespeople!!!! Everything nice when new....but now they are aging. I have seen a few offered for sale....but I don't think they are moving very fast.

    Haha...I think they would have better luck turning them into retirement living systems. I have heard that many golf courses are taking their apartments and marketing them to seniors....not that golf is a draw but the other amenities such as pools, and exercise rooms.

    Our little timeshare is in Banff and according to our contract, we might lose our rental priveledges in 2025. Our lease is with the federal government...and they might not renew it. And so we wait. The process is not so clear, the federal government moves in its own way. Some of us are thinking that the owners will vote to dissolve the arrangement...so many are older and do not want them anymore. I still like mine but it is a prime week at New Years. So I am waiting to hear about the process.
     
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  13. Grammarhero

    Grammarhero TUG Member

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    Williamsburg Plant, EY 4L/4
    DRI South Bend, EY 1/1

    Been to:
    Intl: Aruba, Aus, Bah, China, Jpn, HK, Macau, Mex
    US: AZ, CA, DC, DE, IL, IN, KY, MD, NC, NJ, NV, NY, OH, OR, PA, SC, TN, TX, VA, WA, WV
    Hopefully appreciating in value!
     
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  14. goaliedave

    goaliedave Guest

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    all gone, turned into old age homes.

    Sent from my SM-J327W using Tapatalk
     
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  15. silentg

    silentg TUG Review Crew: Expert TUG Member

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    I won’t be around in 50 years
     
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  16. mpumilia

    mpumilia TUG Review Crew: Veteran TUG Member

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    I don’t care because I will be dead. I do know that I like my fixed weeks to drive to locations.

    Easier than flying and all the logistics that come with big trips as you get older. Only thing is our units are on top floors with no elevators.

    That issue and when we can no longer drive we will have to get rid of them. Sooner rather than later- just not yet.
     
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  17. spirits

    spirits TUG Member

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    I feel your pain. Our unit in Banff is on the second floor. Hauling up suitcases, coolers, laptop and of course, the Rubbermaid container with things like good frying pan, Saran Wrap, coffee, etc. gets harder each year. Last year my husband asked one of the young men to help carry up some of the items. He did not want any payment, but I pushed a 10 dollar bill into his hands and thanked him. He was happy and we were too. We too like our driving holidays but we are only about 5 hours away from our timeshare. Oh well....things change....that's one thing for sure
     
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  18. pedro47

    pedro47 TUG Review Crew: Expert TUG Member

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    In the next fifty years; timeshare resorts will become the new senior citizen community complex.
    My body will be gone; but my spirit will be here on earth or somewhere in the universal.
     
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  19. bizaro86

    bizaro86 TUG Member

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    I think most older resorts will end up getting sold off as condos. The buyers of the condos will primarily be investors who rent the condos out on vrbo/airbnb.
     
  20. bluehende

    bluehende TUG Review Crew: Veteran TUG Member

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    I will bet that in 50 yrs we will not recognize the industry and the change will never be predicted.
     
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  21. Big Matt

    Big Matt TUG Review Crew: Veteran TUG Member

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    All exchange companies will be gone and be replaced by a free and open exchange system managed via an app where the users set the currency based on supply and demand. One or two entities will manage the properties. Many will become long term homes for people under this model.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
     
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  22. billymach4

    billymach4 TUG Member

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    Don't know don't care. The con artists will continue to separate the money from your wallet.
     
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  23. overthehill

    overthehill TUG Review Crew: ELITE TUG Lifetime Member

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    I believe many other t/s owners like us are finding the ability to confirm resorts, which we used to get into with regularity, is getting harder if not impossible. With the increased presence of VRBO, Home Away and other short term rental operations, and the ever increasing maintenance fees being assessed owners of timeshares, it is apparent to us that it's easier and cheaper to get into specific locations using Home Away, etc. than exchanging timeshares points or weeks. I believe the timeshare industry is going to disappear as we know it. We are bailing out of our WM credits and are using Home Away more often to get to locations we want that we can't get to using timeshare exchanges via II or RCI, and for equal of less overall cost.
     
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  24. bankr63

    bankr63 TUG Member

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    I would like to think that timeshare exchange companies will disappear, but I'm not sure what will make that happen. In the several years that I have owned, I have noticed that my RCI fees are quickly approaching my maintenance fees (which have all actually stayed fairly reasonable in terms of increases). But it (RCI) is the only way that I can manage to make point 7 (extending points) happen. No sign yet of people abandoning timeshare exchange companies, but perhaps they will manage to price themselves out of business.

    For exchanges or points forever, I don't see this one realistically at all. Unused exchanges would be a liability, and that liability would never go away. You could essentially get a run on a property that could not be met. It will Disney's 100th anniversary in 50 years. Imagine that everyone will want to stay at their Orlando properties for several weeks (assuming they can afford the $1000/day admission to the parks), but the properties won't be able to provide rooms. Certainly this kind of thing doesn't apply to current membership models. If you have a membership in a golf course, you use (and pay for) your benefits every year or you lose them.

    I don't think there will be any problem getting out of a membership system if they have initiation fees. If you give up a membership or go heavily delinquent, you would have to pay the initiation all over again to reenter.

    I do like some of your ideas though. Our favorite timeshare is our deeded week timeshare, but in some ways points/membership systems may be more attractive. The one benefit of ownership that I like is that I actually do vacation now. It was a conscious decision to buy something, because I knew if I was prepaying I would actually use it. Prior to owning I almost never vacationed and I was on the edge of burnout all the time.

    I do hope I will still be timesharing in 50 years. Probably not, but with the advances in medical sciences, 106 might be an attainable age. I probably won't be going on any of the big roller coasters at Universal anymore...
     
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  25. Larry M

    Larry M TUG Member

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    A couple of things will happen.
    • The field will completely be points-based.
    • The field will be taken over by 2-3 mega-corporations
    • In order to encourage loyalty, exchanges to other systems (e.g., via II, RCI, or DAE) will be difficult, expensive, or prohibited.
    The initial "fixed-week ownership" model is dead. The corporations and even the little independents have figured out that you can't simply keep renovating an old, tired property forever. That's why all the fixed-week deeds have that expiration clause. (Mine is in 2026, only seven years from now and it fits my life plans perfectly--I'm 74 now.)
     
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