We are in escrow to buy yet another timeshare. Marriott, Hawaii, ocean front, lockout, cheap (relatively).
Not sure which Marriott you got, but I have not seen any Cheap, Ocean Front, Lockouts lately. Ko'Olina and MOC keep going for up to and over $10,000 each. Sure, compared to the $60,000 charged by the Developer, that seems cheap....but with their MF's of almost $2000/year, I think that the 10 year Total cost of Ownership is very negative.
I'll report details after escrow closes (or Marriott exercises ROFR). I use the word "cheap" to mean substantially less than the cost of rental over time, including MF's, opportunity cost on capital, and depreciation. You are correct to point out that MF's are the major part of the analysis.
Don't beat yourself up over the infrequent transaction that isn't favorable. Worry instead about whether or not your long-run value exceeds your costs. Naturally, that's a no-brainer if every transaction is positive, but that's probably an unrealistic goal.So, I feel beyond stupid...but oh well.
...I'm questioning my intelligence.
Well, I hope your analysis is correct. When I look at Red Week, I still see plenty of 2 bedroom weeks available (during Summer) for less than $2000 and 3 bedrooms for not much more. As a person who owns an expensive Hawaii week, I can tell you that I FORCE myself to go to Hawaii every year because I just cry when I exhange it....
Like I said, I hope your analysis is correct, but I hope you will go every single year (or EOY if you bought that) for the next 30 years to make sure you get your money's worth. In hindsite, I would never have bought my Hawaii TS (paid $25,000 for it), but it is too late now. You live, you learn.
It's a funny thing, these timeshares. I now own two (ridiculously-expensive) Marriott's in Hawaii -- one purchased earlier this year, and I have no regrets on either. They are fixed weeks in June and I go immediately when the kids get out of school, and are big enough to bring other family and/or friends (their 3BR's).
So, no financial analysis can ever justify it (or even come close) so I've reconciled it in my head (mental accounting?) that the memories and the tradition are invaluable.
So, yes, I'm still buying (or just bought at least), and would buy again if I found something that made sense for my travel plans.
I'm always looking and if the price is right I'm buying.
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To stay on topic, I am opening Escrow today on a Marriott Desert Springs Villas Platinum week. It is probably risky since they may roll out the points program, but I really do believe that they will HAVE to find a way to let in all of the existing owners who bought before the program rolled out. I really don't think they can exclude us (they may charge us more to join). I got a good deal, it is a lockoff, and it is 1 hour from our house so we have the triple threat (use it/rent it/trade it) easily.